The wine grape season in Napa, Sonoma, Mendocino and Lake counties is just beginning, but challenges of oversupply and cautious market response are prompting growers to “mothball” acres or take other vineyard strategies to limit costs until purchases pick up.
As the North Coast wine grape growing season gets underway, the industry faces significant challenges with oversupply issues, changing market dynamics and cautious buyer behavior, according to leading wine grape brokers and growers.
Early season indicators show mixed timing for bud break, when the first new growth emerges from vines for the season. Christian Klier, North Coast grape broker for Turrentine Brokerage, said early-ripening varietals (namely, Chardonnay, Sauvignon Blanc and Pinot Noir) are 10 days early in the southern regions of Napa and Sonoma counties, and in Sonoma County’s Russian River Valley.
Glenn Proctor of Ciatti Co. reports that in some areas, bud break is a week to two weeks behind schedule.
The oversupply situation affecting the North Coast wine industry has led to fewer contract renewals and limited buying activity. However, Andy Beckstoffer of Beckstoffer Vineyards, which farms 4,000 acres across Napa, Lake and Mendocino counties, sees some positive movement in the market.
“We’ve seen some buying interest in the last couple of weeks after a long period of nothing,” Beckstoffer said. “Premium grapes are selling better than average grapes. Napa is more in demand than Lake and Mendocino, although we just sold some Chardonnay in Mendocino.”
This cautious optimism contrasts with the stark assessment from Lise Asimont, senior vice president of Foley Family Farms. She describes the current market as “the worst in my 29-year career.”
She points to trends that began in 2018, exacerbated by COVID-19 and fires in 2020, leading to an excess of planted acreage in California and Oregon.
After a thorough review from late 2024 through March of this year of Foley’s 5,200 planted acreage in from Santa Barbara County north to Walla Walla, Washington, the company decided to graft to new varieties or fallow 10% to 12% those acres.
That would give the Foley organization “a year or two of respite in the market,” or as Asimont called it, “pumping the brakes.” She called this kind of business planning “cockroach mode,” drawing from a term that’s been traced back to 2013.
Specifically identified as being in excess for Foley’s needs were Sonoma County Cabernet Sauvignon, while more Chardonnay and, to a lesser extent, Sauvignon Blanc were needed.
The market challenges stem from multiple factors, including economic pressures, slower consumption, tariff concerns, and shipping issues to Canada. Klier attributes the oversupply to “economic factors, slower consumption, tariff talks, and shipping issues to Canada,” with consumer demand shifting towards younger generations.
Proctor pointed to recent Nielsen data for off-premise sales (grocery and other stores) was down 7% for the first quarter from a year before.
“If we continue to see numbers like that, then everything kind of comes into question,” he said. He doesn’t expect a normal grape market until the 2026 vintage. Asimont is aiming for a market recovery in 2027.
The oversupply has led to significant vineyard management changes across the North Coast.
Klier noted that a number of vineyards are being ripped out or put on pause in Napa County, while Lake County has seen over 1,000 acres of Cabernet Sauvignon given similar treatment, with more scheduled. Meanwhile, growers in Mendocino and Sonoma counties are more interested in “mothballing” vineyards rather than tearing them out, he said.
Beckstoffer explained his approach to vineyard replacement, particularly vines whose vitality has been sapped by diseases such as red blotch: “We pull vineyards that need replacement and expand the perimeter (to include vines around that).”
His company has pulled a couple hundred acres out of production, amounting to roughly 5% of total acreage. He pointed to a rule of thumb in grape growing of turning over 10% of planted acreage annually.
Beckstoffer emphasized the importance of maintaining quality and relationships, “even if it means spending a little extra.“
Meanwhile, Asimont detailed how Foley Family Farms is minimizing farm expenditures by minimally farming certain acreage to be made into wine to be sold to other vintners in bulk.
Proctor described how some vineyards are being pruned differently: “A lot of wineries have told me, ‘Hey, we’re going to kind of minimize our tongues, hopefully, long term, that’s healthy for the vine. Maybe we get better fruit quality, because we can’t use it all anyways, and we’re not ready to pull these vineyards out.'”
The bulk-wine market presents another challenge, with significant inventory, particularly of Cabernet Sauvignon in Napa, Lake and Mendocino. Proctor noted that “the bulk side of the markets, definitely more active the first three months of the season of this year than last year,” though prices for coastal California areas have become more in line with those from the volume-oriented Central Valley.