May 6, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: Middle East – Olive Oil (Virgin) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.
The market for virgin olive oil in the Middle East is set to grow significantly in the coming years, driven by rising consumer demand. With a forecasted CAGR of +2.9% in volume and +3.0% in value from 2024 to 2035, the market is expected to reach 662K tons and $3.3B respectively by the end of the period.
Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for virgin olive oil in the Middle East, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 662K tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.0% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $3.3B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
ConsumptionMiddle East’s Consumption of Virgin Olive Oil
Virgin olive oil consumption soared to 484K tons in 2024, increasing by 22% compared with the previous year’s figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 558K tons. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of the consumption remained at a somewhat lower figure.
The size of the virgin olive oil market in the Middle East surged to $2.4B in 2024, rising by 38% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The total consumption indicated strong growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption increased by +80.2% against 2021 indices. The level of consumption peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.
Consumption By Country
Turkey (264K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of virgin olive oil consumption, accounting for 54% of total volume. Moreover, virgin olive oil consumption in Turkey exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Syrian Arab Republic (100K tons), threefold. Israel (23K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 4.8% share.
In Turkey, virgin olive oil consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Syrian Arab Republic (-3.1% per year) and Israel (+3.2% per year).
In value terms, Turkey ($1.5B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Syrian Arab Republic ($321M). It was followed by Israel.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Turkey stood at +9.9%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Syrian Arab Republic (-1.8% per year) and Israel (+8.3% per year).
The countries with the highest levels of virgin olive oil per capita consumption in 2024 were Syrian Arab Republic (4.6 kg per person), Palestine (3.6 kg per person) and Turkey (3.1 kg per person).
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Turkey (with a CAGR of +4.3%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
ProductionMiddle East’s Production of Virgin Olive Oil
In 2024, the amount of virgin olive oil produced in the Middle East expanded markedly to 549K tons, increasing by 9.7% against 2023 figures. The total production indicated noticeable growth from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, production decreased by -8.1% against 2022 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 48%. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 597K tons. From 2023 to 2024, production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.
In value terms, virgin olive oil production soared to $2.7B in 2024 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production recorded a resilient increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 with an increase of 61% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production attained the peak level in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.
Production By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Turkey (282K tons), Syrian Arab Republic (168K tons) and Palestine (31K tons), together comprising 88% of total production.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Palestine (with a CAGR of +5.4%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
ImportsMiddle East’s Imports of Virgin Olive Oil
In 2024, the amount of virgin olive oil imported in the Middle East fell to 97K tons, reducing by -6.5% on the previous year. In general, imports, however, saw a buoyant expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 43%. The volume of import peaked at 113K tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, virgin olive oil imports skyrocketed to $526M in 2024. Over the period under review, imports, however, posted prominent growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 39%. Over the period under review, imports reached the maximum in 2024 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.
Imports By Country
Turkey represented the major importing country with an import of about 53K tons, which reached 55% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Saudi Arabia (17K tons), Israel (10K tons) and the United Arab Emirates (8.9K tons), together constituting a 38% share of total imports. Kuwait (1.7K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.
Turkey was also the fastest-growing in terms of the virgin olive oil imports, with a CAGR of +65.2% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Israel (+12.4%), the United Arab Emirates (+6.7%) and Saudi Arabia (+1.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. By contrast, Kuwait (-2.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Turkey (+54 p.p.) and Israel (+2.8 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total imports, while the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia saw its share reduced by -2.7%, -4.1% and -22.4% from 2013 to 2024, respectively.
In value terms, Turkey ($245M) constitutes the largest market for imported virgin olive oil in the Middle East, comprising 47% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Saudi Arabia ($108M), with a 21% share of total imports. It was followed by Israel, with an 18% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Turkey stood at +68.5%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Saudi Arabia (+8.5% per year) and Israel (+21.5% per year).
Import Prices By Country
The import price in the Middle East stood at $5,431 per ton in 2024, rising by 33% against the previous year. Import price indicated measured growth from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, virgin olive oil import price increased by +107.8% against 2020 indices. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Israel ($9,542 per ton), while Turkey ($4,621 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Israel (+8.1%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
ExportsMiddle East’s Exports of Virgin Olive Oil
After two years of growth, shipments abroad of virgin olive oil decreased by -21.8% to 161K tons in 2024. Over the period under review, exports, however, posted buoyant growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 with an increase of 79%. The volume of export peaked at 206K tons in 2023, and then declined sharply in the following year.
In value terms, virgin olive oil exports declined to $796M in 2024. Overall, exports, however, recorded a buoyant expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 with an increase of 82% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $902M, and then shrank in the following year.
Exports By Country
Turkey (72K tons) and Syrian Arab Republic (68K tons) dominates exports structure, together generating 87% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Palestine (11K tons), constituting a 7.1% share of total exports. Lebanon (4.3K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Palestine (with a CAGR of +16.2%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, Turkey ($464M) remains the largest virgin olive oil supplier in the Middle East, comprising 58% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Syrian Arab Republic ($231M), with a 29% share of total exports. It was followed by Palestine, with a 6.7% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in Turkey totaled +11.5%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Syrian Arab Republic (+15.4% per year) and Palestine (+17.8% per year).
Export Prices By Country
In 2024, the export price in the Middle East amounted to $4,932 per ton, picking up by 13% against the previous year. Export price indicated pronounced growth from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, virgin olive oil export price increased by +103.9% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 when the export price increased by 30%. Over the period under review, the export prices attained the peak figure in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.
Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Turkey ($6,492 per ton), while Syrian Arab Republic ($3,389 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Turkey (+6.3%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform