In an exclusive interview with Vassilis Zampounis, (agroeconomist, editor olivenews.gr), Dr. Dimitra Aliefs (Economist PhD, expert in international olive oil trade, founding member of the organization 4E) offers an optimistic forecast for the global olive oil industry ahead of the 2025/26 harvest season.
V.Z.: Ms. Aliefs, last year the dominant narrative was one of recovery—we emerged from two poor, deficit-producing years into a nearly historic average harvest. What’s the message for the coming harvest 2025/26?
D.A.: This year, Mr. Zampounis, the message is momentum. The olive trees are well-rested, winter weather conditions across key regions were favorable, and with May drawing to a close—reducing the threat of heatwaves or natural disasters—we’re seeing strong signs of a remarkable harvest ahead. All indications suggest that global olive oil production will exceed 4 million tons.
What’s particularly striking is the alignment across most Mediterranean producers. With the notable exception of Turkey, nearly every major producing country is expected to hit high yield levels. Here’s what the numbers look like in thousand tons (low–high estimates):
Spain: 1,650 – 1,850
Tunisia: 440 – 460
Italy: 340 – 360
Greece: 340 – 360
Turkey: 240 – 280
Portugal: 190 – 210
Morocco: 120 – 130
Syria: 110 – 130
Others (*): 650 – 750
Global total: 4,080 – 4,530 thousand tons
(*) Including Algeria (60–70), Libya (50), Egypt (30), Saudi Arabia (20), and more.
V.Z.: So we’re potentially looking at a world production level around 4.0 to 4.5 million tons. What can we say about pricing?
D.A.: It’s far too early for specific figures. But what’s clear is that everyone involved in the olive oil value chain—farmers, traders, retailers—must begin a serious dialogue. And I emphasize serious. These discussions need to go beyond national borders, factoring in global dynamics of production, consumption, and prices.
V.Z.: Ms. Aliefs, thank you for your time and for sharing these crucial insights.