Spain’s olive oil faces new price pressure. Credit: Canva
Spain’s olive oil sector is taking another hit. After two tough harvests, farmers are sounding alarms that 2025 may bring a new blow, not from nature but from the market itself. In a recent statement, the UPA, Union of Small Farmers, issued a rare double alert. The farmers are concerned about the abnormally high temperatures during a crucial growth phase and what they call the “interested interference” from market operators trying to drive down prices at source. It is a warning that echoes way beyond the groves of Andalucía. With Spain producing over 70% of the EU’s olive oil, the implications could soon reach your kitchen and supermarket near you.
What this means to you
Even if you are not an olive farmer, this matters. Prices in supermarkets go down, and do not be fooled, because that bargain bottle can be low-quality mixed with cheaper oils or imported without proper labelling. Here is how to avoid getting scammed:
Check the label: Look for Aceite de Oliva Virgen Extra and the harvest year.
Be cautious, especially towards super cheap oil; if it sounds too good, it is.
Try to buy from the direct or local producers with better quality and more transparency.
Heat ruining olives
The first threat was meteorological, as the UPA secretary Nicolás Chica explained that the olive flowering phase, which is key to determining next year’s yield, is susceptible to weather. So heatwaves are coming around this period, as forecast in parts of Southern Spain, that can damage blossoms and slash the future output before the olives even form.
It is not the first time that this has happened. Due to extreme heat and drought, Spain’s harvest was already down in 2022 and 2023. So farmers are worried that a third year would devastate the small producers.
But is there manipulation in the market? It is a second warning that raised eyebrows. Chica accused certain commercial operators of spreading overblown optimistic projections on the upcoming campaign, which were not based on data but were used to justify paying farmers less. There is no new conflict between those who grow the olives and those who distribute them, but it was rarely called out so publicly as of now.
Falling prices despite great sales
Here is the paradox: Spain produced around 1.41 million tonnes of olive oil this year and sold 60% of it. Yet the average price per kilo has dropped to €3.32, which is well below the range of €5-6 during the peak of the shortage.
Why? Experts suggest the market is reacting unrealistically to speculative sentiment about future conditions. If traders expect a surplus or claim one is coming, even without data, it can suppress the buying prices paid to producers.
Consumers face shrinking quality, confusing labels, and a bottle that costs more, tastes worse, and leaves everyone frustrated. Another olive oil crisis might be on the way, and it is not about bad weather. So next time you reach for a bottle, ask yourself: Is this real olive oil or what is left after everyone takes their cut?