Tuesday, 29 July 2025, 17:14
Negotiations between the European Union and the Trump administration ended on Sunday with a concession from Brussels, which agreed that goods produced in the EU countries will pass through US customs upon payment of a 15% tariff. The blow to Spain is not huge, since to far this year the USA barely accounts for 4.45% of total exports (7.26 billion euros of the total of nearly 163.4 billion euros accumulated between January and May), practically the same proportion it represented in the whole of 2024 (nearly 18.18 billion euros out of a total of nearly 384.5 billions). If last year’s figure for exports to the US were to be repeated – although they had fallen by 5% as of May – the bill in the form of tariffs would be around 2.72 billion euros.
Meanwhile, for Andalucía, whose exports to the United States, the region’s fifth most important international customer with between 6% and 7% of total foreign sales, reaching 3.14 billion euros last year (of the more than 40 billion euros in goods and services sold overseas in 2024), the cost in the form of tariffs would be around 470 million euros. However, this year, sales from Andalucía to the US giant are also experiencing a 14% drop as of the first four months of 2025 compared to the same period last year.
Regarding the impact that Malaga-based companies will suffer as a result of the tariff agreement signed last Sunday by President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and US President Trump, Malaga’s confederation of employers (CEM) has worked out what that could be based on the cumulative numbers to date for this year. Thus, up to May, Malaga province has exported goods to the United States worth nearly 140 million euros (13% less than in the same period last year, although this destination still represents 10% of total overseas sales so far this year, currently at around 1.4 billion euros). This figure allows the CEM to anticipate that, for the whole year, it will rise to around 300 million euros. With these projections, the CEM estimates a tariff cost of approximately 45 million euros for companies in Malaga, an economic impact that this business association describes as “significant”. The CEM does concede that the new agreement brings stability and certainty to businesses. However, they are also cautious: the more detailed terms of the agreement and its real impact on the business sectors involved are still unknown, as there is talk of a 0% tariff on some strategic products. President of the CEM (also a member of the Andalusian employers’ association), Javier González de Lara, stated on Monday that, while these are significant figures, “considering the positive aspects of the agreement, it mitigates the risk of a prolonged trade war and provides certainty, although it maintains significant tariffs for key sectors in Andalucía.”
In terms of sectors, the data suggests that the most affected will be the olive oil sector. According to official figures for 2024, of the 308 million euros in exports from Malaga to the United States, 221.9 million euros corresponded to olive oil. Antonio Luque, president of Dcoop, quipped this Monday in statements to SUR: “It could have been just an industry scare or the death of this trade, and we have been left with a scare. Fortunately, we’re not talking about 30% or 50%. We can live with it, passing it on to the consumer. It will cost us more to increase sales, but we hope that American consumers will accept slightly higher prices. Now we can breathe a little better, because now we know something. That said, we want to see the fine print, to find out if the tariff applies to both packaged and bulk products, because if the US only wanted to boost US industry with these tariffs…”
While official statistics indicate that last year’s olive oil exports to the United States reached 221 million euros, Luque estimates Dcoop’s total exports to the US at 275 million euros. For this year, he expects the export volume to be similar to that of 2024, although money-wise, turnover will be somewhat lower due to the drop in raw material prices. In any case, and the figures speak for themselves, olive oil will be the sector bearing the brunt of the tariffs imposed on Malaga-based companies.
There are other agricultural sub-sectors that will be slightly affected by tariffs and others not at all. For example, Trops, which produces and markets tropical fruit, mainly avocado and mango, points out that they are practically unaffected: “Our clients are primarily European countries. When it comes to fruit, the closer the customer, the better”, say company sources. Similar statements are coming from the meat sector. Ramón Soler Ciurana, operations director of Faccsa-Prolongo and president of the meat division within the national association of meat industries in Spain (Anice), affirms that the sector’s turnover in Malaga will be practically zero. The meat areas expected to be hardest hit are Iberian meat products, especially ham, which are produced in other locations. In this regard, Anice’s director-general, Giuseppe Aloisio, explains that, in the case of Andalusia as a whole, meat exports to the United States have increased, but this has coincided with a slowdown in sales of products of high added value due to the uncertainty over a new tariff agreement. “We are confident that, with clear new rules, we will be able to return to the sustained rate of growth we have maintained to date. If so, we would consolidate the important positions that Andalucía’s Iberian pork-processing industries in particular have achieved in the demanding North American market”, says Aloisio. He then adds: “Any kind of agri-food product campaign that can be launched from Andalucía will be welcomed, following in the wake of olive oil, undoubtedly the flagship product of Andalusian exports.”
Wine, fish in brine, vinegar and saffron
Meat is a scarce export, but other food products are among Malaga province’s biggest exports to the United States: for example, non-olive oils (12.6 million euros), wine (4.4 million euros last year), as well as dried fish or fish in brine (0.9 million euros), vinegar (also 0.9 million euros) and saffron (0.8 million euros).
Moreover, the list of Malaga’s export sales to the US is not limited to the food sector. ICEX data shows that the second most important product after olive oil that is marketed and sold across the pond is made up of automatic instruments and devices for regulation and control (23.8 million euros). Other notable pieces of data are sales of photovoltaic panels (5.7 million euros) and electronic circuit boards for televisions and other audiovisual devices (3.1 million euros). This list of Malaga products sold to the United States brings to mind some important company names based in the province, such as Airzone (specialists in air conditioning), TDK and also Denso Ten (formerly known as Fujitsu), which had previously stated to SUR that it was affected by the uncertainty over tariffs, as its customers could be delaying investment decisions.
In light of the impact of the tariffs, González de Lara has called on both the regional government of Andalucía and central government to strengthen their support for the diversification of destination countries for the region’s exports and more international promotion of Andalusian products to mitigate the new costs associated with US tariffs.
Dining and Cooking