The 15% US tariff on Italian wine, effective 1 August, is projected to cost the Italian wine industry around €317 million, according to Unione Italiana Vini (UIV)
The UIV Observatory noted that US tariffs and a weaker dollar will significantly inflate the price of Italian wine.
A bottle that cost $11.50 (€10.00) at the beginning of the year, after leaving the cellar for €5, will now cost close to $15 (€13.10).
This means the final retail price markup will surge from 123% to 186%. It predicts even steeper prices in restaurants, where that same €5 bottle could be marked up to around $60 (€52).
The UIV Observatory has warned that unless revenue reductions are absorbed across the supply chain, Italian wine exports to the US could fall to 2019 levels by the end of 2026.
A significant 76% (366 million bottles) of the 482 million bottles exported to the US last year are considered at high risk due to exposure exceeding 20%.
A significant 76% of the 482 million Italian wine bottles exported to the US last year, equivalent to 366 million bottles, are considered high risk.
These shipments come from producers whose exposure to the US market exceeds 20% of their total exports, leaving them particularly vulnerable to shifts in demand or trade conditions.
Specific wine types that are particularly vulnerable include Moscato d’Asti (60%), Pinot Grigio (48%), and Tuscan/Piedmont reds.
Other affected varieties are Chianti Classico (46%), Brunello di Montalcino, Prosecco (27%), and Lambrusco. These affected wines represent 364 million bottles, valued at over €1.3 billion, which accounts for 70% of Italy’s wine exports to the United States.
UIV president Lamberto Frescobaldi is urging the EU and Italian government to take action to protect the sector, highlighting that these tariffs could significantly raise shelf prices for Italian wine in the US.
He expects that the loss of earnings for overseas trading partners will rise to nearly $1.7 billion (€1.5 billion).
UIV secretary general, Paolo Castelletti, added that while 15% is better than the originally proposed 30%, it’s still a major increase from pre-tariff rates, particularly impacting Italy due to its high export volume to the US and focus on affordable wines.
The UIV is awaiting the full agreement text between the European Commission and the Trump administration for a detailed analysis.
Impact On US Economy
The UIV also warned that the 15% US tariffs on European wine could devastate the US economy, costing an estimated $25 billion (€22 million) and potentially shrinking the overall economic impact of the US wine business by 17% by 2026.
Frescobaldi believes that these tariffs will not only hurt European exports but also negatively impact the US wine distribution chain, affecting wages, consumer demand, and jobs, extending beyond the wine sector itself.
He has urged for wine to be included in the ‘zero-for-zero’ package, advocating for zero or reduced tariffs.
The UIV Wine Observatory estimates a $3 billion (€2.6 billion) drop in the consumer value of Italian, French, and Spanish wines, impacting distributors and retailers.
Its analysis predicts a significant reduction in the overall socioeconomic impact of wine in the US, with Italian wine consumption contributing $13.5 billion (€11.8 billion) to this decline.
Even domestic wines, already declining, are expected to be negatively affected.
Dining and Cooking