Aug 29, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: MENA – Refined Olive Oil – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.
Driven by rising demand for refined olive oil in the MENA region, the market is projected to see steady growth in both volume and value over the next decade. By 2035, market volume is expected to reach 624K tons, while market value is forecasted to reach $3.1B in nominal prices.
Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for refined olive oil in MENA, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.7% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 624K tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $3.1B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
ConsumptionMENA’s Consumption of Refined Olive Oil
In 2024, consumption of refined olive oil was finally on the rise to reach 578K tons after two years of decline. Overall, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the consumption volume increased by 5.9%. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 588K tons. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the consumption remained at a somewhat lower figure.
The value of the refined olive oil market in MENA stood at $2.5B in 2024, growing by 7.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs in 2024 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.
Consumption By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Iran (102K tons), Saudi Arabia (76K tons) and Egypt (75K tons), with a combined 44% share of total consumption.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Saudi Arabia (with a CAGR of +2.8%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest refined olive oil markets in MENA were Egypt ($488M), Iran ($482M) and Saudi Arabia ($261M), together comprising 49% of the total market. Israel, Iraq, Algeria, Turkey, Morocco and Syrian Arab Republic lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 38%.
In terms of the main consuming countries, Israel, with a CAGR of +7.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
The countries with the highest levels of refined olive oil per capita consumption in 2024 were Israel (3.1 kg per person), Saudi Arabia (2.1 kg per person) and Syrian Arab Republic (1.4 kg per person).
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Saudi Arabia (with a CAGR of +0.9%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
ProductionMENA’s Production of Refined Olive Oil
In 2024, production of refined olive oil decreased by less than 0.1% to 615K tons, falling for the second consecutive year after six years of growth. Over the period under review, production, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 with an increase of 22% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 747K tons. From 2023 to 2024, production growth failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, refined olive oil production reached $2.9B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total production indicated a measured expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, production increased by +56.5% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when the production volume increased by 28%. Over the period under review, production reached the maximum level in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.
Production By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Iran (102K tons), Egypt (75K tons) and Saudi Arabia (74K tons), with a combined 41% share of total production.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Saudi Arabia (with a CAGR of +3.4%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
ImportsMENA’s Imports of Refined Olive Oil
In 2024, purchases abroad of refined olive oil decreased by -16.7% to 11K tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. Overall, imports continue to indicate a noticeable downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when imports increased by 36%. As a result, imports reached the peak of 23K tons. From 2017 to 2024, the growth of imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.
In value terms, refined olive oil imports declined dramatically to $57M in 2024. Over the period under review, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when imports increased by 65%. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at $75M in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.
Imports By Country
Morocco represented the main importing country with an import of around 3.9K tons, which amounted to 36% of total imports. Saudi Arabia (1,860 tons) held a 17% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Kuwait (12%), Iraq (6.1%), the United Arab Emirates (5.3%), Israel (5.2%) and Qatar (4.5%). Yemen (258 tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.
Morocco experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports of refined olive oil. At the same time, Qatar (+30.3%), Israel (+4.2%) and Kuwait (+1.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Qatar emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in MENA, with a CAGR of +30.3% from 2013-2024. By contrast, the United Arab Emirates (-3.2%), Iraq (-6.5%), Yemen (-7.7%) and Saudi Arabia (-8.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Morocco (+9.4 p.p.), Kuwait (+5.2 p.p.), Qatar (+4.3 p.p.) and Israel (+3 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2013-2024, the share of Iraq (-2.4 p.p.) and Saudi Arabia (-13.2 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.
In value terms, Morocco ($25M) constitutes the largest market for imported refined olive oil in MENA, comprising 43% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Saudi Arabia ($6.8M), with a 12% share of total imports. It was followed by Israel, with an 8.6% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in Morocco totaled +4.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Saudi Arabia (-9.1% per year) and Israel (+11.8% per year).
Import Prices By Country
The import price in MENA stood at $5,231 per ton in 2024, dropping by -1.9% against the previous year. Import price indicated a pronounced increase from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, refined olive oil import price increased by +86.9% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 an increase of 35%. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $5,333 per ton, and then dropped slightly in the following year.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Israel ($8,645 per ton), while Qatar ($3,035 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Yemen (+10.3%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
ExportsMENA’s Exports of Refined Olive Oil
In 2024, approx. 48K tons of refined olive oil were exported in MENA; falling by -27.5% compared with the previous year’s figure. Overall, exports continue to indicate a noticeable decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 381%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 186K tons. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of the exports failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, refined olive oil exports reduced notably to $266M in 2024. In general, exports, however, enjoyed a pronounced expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 136% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure at $319M in 2023, and then contracted rapidly in the following year.
Exports By Country
Turkey represented the key exporter of refined olive oil in MENA, with the volume of exports resulting at 30K tons, which was approx. 62% of total exports in 2024. It was distantly followed by Tunisia (11K tons), making up a 24% share of total exports. The following exporters – Syrian Arab Republic (2K tons), the United Arab Emirates (1.9K tons) and Lebanon (1.7K tons) – each recorded a 12% share of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to refined olive oil exports from Turkey stood at -4.6%. At the same time, the United Arab Emirates (+9.2%), Tunisia (+4.9%) and Syrian Arab Republic (+1.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the United Arab Emirates emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in MENA, with a CAGR of +9.2% from 2013-2024. By contrast, Lebanon (-6.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2013 to 2024, the share of Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates and Syrian Arab Republic increased by +14, +2.9 and +1.6 percentage points, respectively.
In value terms, Turkey ($185M) remains the largest refined olive oil supplier in MENA, comprising 69% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Tunisia ($57M), with a 21% share of total exports. It was followed by Syrian Arab Republic, with a 3.2% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in Turkey stood at +1.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Tunisia (+8.8% per year) and Syrian Arab Republic (+9.1% per year).
Export Prices By Country
In 2024, the export price in MENA amounted to $5,601 per ton, picking up by 15% against the previous year. In general, the export price enjoyed a strong increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 an increase of 234%. The level of export peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.
Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Turkey ($6,231 per ton), while the United Arab Emirates ($1,895 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Syrian Arab Republic (+7.4%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform
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