Sep 13, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: U.S. – Refined Olive Oil – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.
The US refined olive oil market is forecast to grow modestly through 2035, with consumption reaching 694K tons and market value hitting $2B. Domestic production is strong at 599K tons, while imports, primarily from Spain, Italy, and Turkey, play a crucial role despite a recent volume dip. The US also exports significantly to Canada and Mexico. A notable trend is the sharp increase in import prices, which surged 35% in 2024, significantly impacting the market’s value dynamics.
Key Findings
Market forecast to grow to 694K tons and $2B by 2035 at CAGRs of +0.3% and +0.5% respectivelyDomestic production is robust and increasing, reaching 599K tons in 2024Spain is the dominant import supplier, accounting for 43% of volume and 47% of import valueImport prices surged dramatically by 35% in 2024, reaching $7,759 per tonCanada is the primary export destination, receiving 64% of US refined olive oil exportsMarket Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for refined olive oil in the United States, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.3% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 694K tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +0.5% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $2B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
ConsumptionUnited States’s Consumption of Refined Olive Oil
In 2024, consumption of refined olive oil increased by 1.4% to 673K tons, rising for the fifth consecutive year after two years of decline. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 5.2%. Refined olive oil consumption peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.
The size of the refined olive oil market in the United States reduced modestly to $1.9B in 2024, flattening at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $2B, and then shrank slightly in the following year.
ProductionUnited States’s Production of Refined Olive Oil
In 2024, the amount of refined olive oil produced in the United States amounted to 599K tons, surging by 2.2% against the previous year’s figure. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 8.7% against the previous year. Refined olive oil production peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.
In value terms, refined olive oil production contracted slightly to $1.7B in 2024. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 with an increase of 17% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $1.7B, leveling off in the following year.
ImportsUnited States’s Imports of Refined Olive Oil
Refined olive oil imports into the United States reduced modestly to 88K tons in 2024, with a decrease of -2.9% against the previous year’s figure. In general, imports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 with an increase of 28% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of 119K tons. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of imports failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, refined olive oil imports skyrocketed to $685M in 2024. Overall, imports, however, enjoyed a strong expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 with an increase of 56% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure in 2024 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.
Imports By Country
In 2024, Spain (38K tons) constituted the largest supplier of refined olive oil to the United States, with a 43% share of total imports. Moreover, refined olive oil imports from Spain exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Italy (18K tons), twofold. Turkey (18K tons) ranked third in terms of total imports with a 20% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume from Spain totaled +5.9%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Italy (-6.3% per year) and Turkey (-1.1% per year).
In value terms, Spain ($320M) constituted the largest supplier of refined olive oil to the United States, comprising 47% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Italy ($148M), with a 22% share of total imports. It was followed by Turkey, with a 17% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from Spain stood at +14.0%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Italy (+0.8% per year) and Turkey (+5.3% per year).
Import Prices By Country
In 2024, the average refined olive oil import price amounted to $7,759 per ton, surging by 35% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price enjoyed a buoyant increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 when the average import price increased by 47%. The import price peaked in 2024 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.
Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Spain ($8,390 per ton), while the price for Morocco ($3,389 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tunisia (+7.9%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.
ExportsUnited States’s Exports of Refined Olive Oil
In 2024, shipments abroad of refined olive oil increased by 4.8% to 14K tons, rising for the fifth consecutive year after two years of decline. Overall, exports continue to indicate a prominent expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 with an increase of 40%. The exports peaked in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.
In value terms, refined olive oil exports stood at $41M in 2024. Over the period under review, exports saw a prominent increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when exports increased by 36% against the previous year. The exports peaked in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.
Exports By Country
Canada (9K tons) was the main destination for refined olive oil exports from the United States, with a 64% share of total exports. Moreover, refined olive oil exports to Canada exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Mexico (4.1K tons), twofold.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Canada totaled +12.4%.
In value terms, the largest markets for refined olive oil exported from the United States were Canada ($23M) and Mexico ($14M).
In terms of the main countries of destination, Canada, with a CAGR of +11.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review.
Export Prices By Country
In 2024, the average refined olive oil export price amounted to $2,872 per ton, waning by -3.3% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.4%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 an increase of 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum at $3,057 per ton in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the export prices remained at a lower figure.
Average prices varied somewhat for the major foreign markets. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($3,548 per ton), while the average price for exports to Canada totaled $2,511 per ton.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Mexico (+6.1%).
Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform
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