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New data shows the fallout for dairy and meat exporters to the United States from President Donald Trump’s first round of tariffs lasted between one and two months before exports bounced back.
But analysis of four months of trade data by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade shows the hangover from Trump’s tariffs for wine exporters has been much worse.
There is clear evidence of US importers of NZ wine and red meat stocking up in March and April before the 10% tariff took effect on April 5.
Red meat exports to the US surged 66.5% in March compared to the same month the year before, and were up 30.4% in April, before falling by 7.8% in May and 8.1% in June.
“There was a considerable bounce-back in July, with growth of 15%,” MFAT said.
Overall annual meat exports in the full-tariff July quarter were only down 2% on the previous year.
Wine exports to the US surged 21.9% in March and 11.5% in April before falling in May (again by 7.8%) and June (-10.5%).
Unlike its red meat counterparts, however, the wine sector was unable to pull out of its nosedive in July with a thumping 40.8% drop in exports to the US recorded for the month.
“Wine is one area where we see stronger evidence of permanent moves away from the more highly priced post-tariff NZ exports,” MFAT said.
For dairy, NZ’s second largest export to the US after red meat, March sales to the US fell 23.3% for the month, before rebounding 39% in April.
Dairy exports had appeared to have shrugged off the April tariff announcements with sales rising 6.8% in May before a slump in June when exports fell by 21.5%. Sales rebounded 16.4% in July, however, for exports to be 0.1% higher for the July quarter overall compared to the same quarter in 2024.
MFAT said overall NZ exports to the US fell 3% in the July quarter. This reflected both US importers working through inventories built up ahead of the tariffs and a permanent reduction in demand as US buyers faced higher prices for imports.
“However, we cannot establish the relative mix of permanent and temporary effects,” the ministry said.
More positively, MFAT said the reduction in US demand was countered by a 10.8% increase in exports to non-US markets in the July quarter. The European Union (up 33.6%) and South Korean markets (up 21.9%) being the strongest performers.
MFAT said it will update its analysis to gauge the impact of Trump’s August 7 hike in tariffs on NZ exports from 10% to 15% as new trade data becomes available.
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