Italian Olive Oil Producers Optimistic Despite Challenges

Summary

Italian farm­ers and millers are opti­mistic about the upcom­ing olive oil pro­duc­tion cam­paign, with expec­ta­tions of a yield exceed­ing 300,000 tons in the 2025/26 sea­son. However, chal­lenges from weather and pests, such as the olive fruit fly, are caus­ing uncer­tainty and poten­tial declines in yields and qual­ity in var­i­ous regions of Italy.

Italian farm­ers and millers are feel­ing opti­mistic about the approach­ing har­vest and olive oil pro­duc­tion cam­paign.

The final yield is expected to sig­nif­i­cantly exceed the 250,000 met­ric tons reported for the 2024/25 crop year by Ismea, the pub­lic agency respon­si­ble for ser­vices to the agri­cul­tural mar­ket.

“What we are see­ing now is an olive oil yield which might reach in Italy 300,000 tons in the 2025/26 cam­paign,” Massimo Ragno told Olive Oil Times.

What we are hop­ing for is a good cam­paign, espe­cially in key south­ern regions such as Puglia, Sicily and Calabria.- Massimo Ragno, pur­chas­ing man­ager, Monini

Ragno is the panel leader and pur­chas­ing man­ager at Monini, one of the largest Italian olive oil pro­duc­ers and bot­tlers.

While gen­er­ally opti­mistic, many pro­duc­ers are report­ing sig­nif­i­cant chal­lenges from weather and pests. Uncertainty looms over final yields and qual­ity in many areas.

Since July, Italian grow­ers have reported a mod­est to mod­er­ate pres­ence of the olive fruit fly, mainly in the cen­tral and north­ern regions.

See Also:2025 Harvest Updates

“We are see­ing in many areas a very high atten­tion level for the pres­ence of the pest,” Ragno said.

Between August and September, mild tem­per­a­tures and high humid­ity favored the fur­ther spread of the fruit fly across sev­eral regions.

“Its impact is des­tined to be vari­able depend­ing on the spe­cific weather con­di­tions and the pre­ven­tive activ­i­ties deployed by the grow­ers them­selves,” Ragno said.

A severe olive fruit fly infes­ta­tion, affect­ing more than 20 to 25 per­cent of fruits, could sig­nif­i­cantly affect final olive oil qual­ity.

In cen­tral Italian regions, includ­ing Tuscany and Umbria, the new har­vest is expected to be an ​‘off-year’ in the alter­nate bear­ing cycle of olive trees, result­ing in less fruit.

On and off years

Olive trees have a nat­ural cycle of alter­nat­ing high and low pro­duc­tion years, known as ​“on-years” and ​“off-years,” respec­tively. During an on-year, the olive trees bear a greater quan­tity of fruit, result­ing in increased olive oil pro­duc­tion. Conversely, an ​“off-year” is char­ac­ter­ized by a reduced yield of olives due to the stress from the pre­vi­ous ​“on year.” Olive oil pro­duc­ers often mon­i­tor these cycles to antic­i­pate and plan for vari­a­tions in pro­duc­tion.

“Last year, they had peaks of pro­duc­tion. Due to the alter­nate fruit-bear­ing cycle, we expect yields down by 30 to 40 per­cent and even 50 per­cent in some areas,” Ragno said.

Additionally, in south­ern Tuscany, north­ern Lazio and Umbria, the fruit fly is cur­rently quite active.

“There we are see­ing a sig­nif­i­cant attack by the pest, and that comes from the humid air. Less proac­tive grow­ers might find them­selves with prob­lems both in the quan­tity and in the qual­ity of their prod­uct,” Ragno said.

In the cen­tral and north­ern areas of Tuscany, local grow­ers have reported other chal­leng­ing con­di­tions.

Francesco Piattelli Palmarini, the owner of Agricola Maraviglia, expects a 60 per­cent decline in yields for the upcom­ing har­vest.

“This decline is due to a heat­wave that hit our area in early June, right dur­ing flow­er­ing and fruit set: the high tem­per­a­tures lit­er­ally burned the small newly formed fruits, com­pro­mis­ing much of the pro­duc­tion,” Piattelli Palmarini explained.

“From the qual­ity point of view, how­ever, the sum­mer was fairly favor­able: tem­per­a­tures remained within nor­mal ranges and the few olives left on the trees appear healthy and of excel­lent appear­ance. We are con­fi­dent that, even if the quan­tity will be low, the qual­ity of the oil will be excel­lent,” he added.

To counter the pres­ence of the olive fruit fly, the organic pro­ducer care­fully mon­i­tored the pest’s pres­ence, obtain­ing opti­mal results.

“As we farm organ­i­cally, I have used only pheromone traps to mon­i­tor and con­tain the prob­lem, avoid­ing any chem­i­cal treat­ments,” Piattelli Palmarini said.

In other cen­tral and south-cen­tral regions, such as Abruzzo, pro­duc­ers are mostly opti­mistic and fore­see very good results.

“These are the weeks when the olive fruit fly might move around,” Ragno said. ​“Winners will be the grow­ers who are atten­tive, con­stantly mon­i­tor­ing the flies’ pres­ence, and exe­cut­ing the treat­ments when needed.”

See Also:Solar Ban in Italy Pushes Developers Into Olive Oil Production

Still, the most sig­nif­i­cant pro­duc­ing regions in the south of the coun­try gen­er­ally faced sig­nif­i­cantly drier weather with higher tem­per­a­tures, con­di­tions which have cur­tailed the spread of the pest.

“What we are hop­ing for is a good cam­paign, espe­cially in key south­ern regions such as Puglia, Sicily and Calabria,” Ragno said.

In Puglia, a region respon­si­ble for up to 50 – 60 per­cent of Italy’s over­all olive pro­duc­tion, the fruit fly has been reported in the most humid areas.

“Growers are see­ing some­thing in the Gargano region and some areas towards the lakes, such as Carpino,” Ragno said, refer­ring to the penin­sula known as the spur of Italy’s boot. ​“Still, the prob­lem seems lim­ited even in those areas.” 

In other sig­nif­i­cant regions, such as Sicily, a rebound is expected. Still, dry con­di­tions and lim­ited irri­ga­tion oppor­tu­ni­ties are des­tined to leave their mark.

In west­ern Sicily’s Belice Valley, where most of the well-known Nocellara del Belice olive vari­ety is grown, the sit­u­a­tion is com­plex.

“I can con­firm that until June, the sea­son looked mag­nif­i­cent: excel­lent flow­er­ing, very few flower abor­tions… Everything sug­gested the best out­come,” said Mirko Carracci, owner of Tenute Carracci.

“However, with the arrival of sum­mer, the heat and the scarce water sup­ply caused by the con­tin­u­ous break­ages of water pipes and dams, along with their poor main­te­nance, olive grow­ing in the Belìce Valley has taken a down­turn,” he added.

Now, Caracci said leaves in the olive grove are ​“yel­low­ing” and olives are becom­ing shriv­eled.

“Of course, we have not even remotely reached the stage of phe­no­lic ripen­ing of the olives,” Carracci said. ​“Therefore, a dras­tic loss of yield is expected as well as a qual­ity that might not be fully opti­mal, since a stressed tree can­not accu­mu­late water and thus does not pro­duce enough oily mol­e­cules.” 

According to Carracci, high tem­per­a­tures pre­vented the attacks of phy­tophagous insects.

“Only the few farms that have their own irri­ga­tion plans, draw­ing from wells or other sources, can enjoy abun­dance and good or high qual­ity of Nocellara del Belìce,” Carracci said.

Despite the need for irri­ga­tion, in this part of Sicily, there are very few irri­gated farms.

“Which is why a high sell­ing price is expected for table olives and sim­i­larly for olives des­tined for oil, almost com­pa­ra­ble to last year’s prices,” Carracci said.

Olive prices appear des­tined to remain high as the new cam­paign begins, a trend expected to rever­ber­ate through to the retail price of Italian olive oil, which is likely to stay ele­vated next sea­son, as it did last year.

“Further chal­lenges might arise if the dif­fer­ence between the prices of Italian olive oil and those of other European olive oils remains very sig­nif­i­cant,” Ragno con­cluded.