According to the USDA, the United States Department of Agriculture, global butter consumption is expected to (still) grow by 2.7% in 2025. At the same time, production is steadily declining in Europe. About 70% of the product exported worldwide comes from here and New Zealand (where production has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels). Both started 2025 with historically low stocks.
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The causes.
The genesis of this contraction in Europe dates back to 2022, when the price of milk peaked, due to inflation and high fuel prices, pushing companies to focus on more profitable products, such as cheese.
Herd management is also becoming more onerous and complicated due to overheating stress and diseases such as Blue Tongue. Contagious nodular dermatitis is also of concern, with four confirmed outbreaks in Sardinia and a new outbreak in the province of Mantua, for a total of more than 900 animals involved.
Strong concern also in Italy
“Prices are set to rise further due to the strong demand and the lower demand on the market for low-fat powders, the preparation of which produces excess fat used for butter,” Michele Falzetta, general manager of Latteria Soresina, explains to Il Sole 24 Ore. “To this must be added the negative milk trend, which leads to a reduction in raw material,” he adds. “As primary producers – we collect 500 million kilos of milk – we are focusing on the production of the fat material, so as not to be found unprepared in the autumn and to guarantee the product,” he continues.
“For many months now, Italian butter companies have been concerned about the soaring wholesale quotations of the raw materials necessary for butter production,” Assolatte reports. “In the space of just a few months, we have gone from wholesale quotations close to EUR 4.50/kg to values in excess of EUR 7/kg, with enormous difficulties in transferring the increases to sales prices. The situation now seems to have stabilised at levels far above last year’s, but the concerns of Italian butter companies remain,’ he says.
Dining and Cooking