In the first part of 2025, Italian agri-food exports continued their growth (+5.7% in September) and could reach over 70 billion euro by the end of the year for the first time. A surge mainly driven by the markets of the European Union (+9%), with excellent performances in Poland (+17.3%), Romania (+11.1%), the Czech Republic (+9.1%) and Spain (+14.5%). Less brilliant was non-EU growth (+4%), slowed down by declines in the United States (-1.1%), Russia (-8%) and Japan (-13%). Italy is now the world’s ninth largest exporter by value (EUR 67.2 billion in 2024) and the second largest country in the world in terms of growth over the last five years, with an increase of 55%.
This is the picture traced by Nomisma for the 9th edition of the Forum Agrifood Monitor, an event organised in collaboration with Crif and with the support of Crédit Agricole Italia. However, there is no shortage of criticalities, due above all to the persistence of a strong geographic concentration: “the first five destination markets (Germany, USA, France, UK and Spain) still represent 50% of total exports. A dependence that makes greater diversification urgent,” the researchers note, “especially in a phase characterised by multiple factors of uncertainty and complexity, in which global trade balances are proving increasingly fragile.
The importance of diversification
The biggest unknown for the future comes from theeffects of US tariffs, considering thatTricolour exports overseas increased by 66% between 2019 and 2024 and that Italy is now the third largest supplier of food&veverage products to the States.
The decline in agri-food exports to the USA, more than to tariffs, is mainly linked to the devaluation of the dollar (more than -10% since the beginning of the year) and to the uncertainty generated by the tariffs, “which have caused a swinging trend: a strong growth in the first three months of the year due to the stock effect and a collapse up to -22% in August, with the introduction of the additional tariffs of 15% on some of our products,” they note from the Bologna-based research institute.
Despite this, the US remains a strategic market that is difficult to replace for Italian food & beverage. With a per capita GDP close to $90,000 and an annual food expenditure of over $4,500 per person, the US imports $211 billion worth of agri-food products, with a growth of 50% in the last five years.
Dining and Cooking