Choosing a fresh turkey for your holiday meal has some great benefits.
A fresh turkey offers better flavor and supports the local economy. Plus, you don’t have to thaw it out.
The juicy turkey, decadent stuffing, buttery mashed potatoes and mouth-watering pumpkin pie: it’s the perfect, traditional Thanksgiving meal, but it can add up to a costly grocery bill.
Ahead of Thanksgiving, food prices are already top of mind for many shoppers. The price of groceries continues to be wildly high, costing about 28% more than in 2019. The past year alone has seen a 1.1% price increase, according to the Consumer Price Index.
Despite the inflated prices, there is some good news: your Thanksgiving feast might cost a bit less this year.
Experts say Thanksgiving could cost less
Each year, the University of Tennessee Extension, led by Ann Berry, releases a study about the price of Thanksgiving dinner. The research team looks at the meal costs to feed a group of 10 with a traditional turkey feast.
To find the cost, experts shop at 16 big-box and local grocery stores all around Tennessee. They shopped from Nov. 1 through Nov. 8 for the same 23 ingredients at each store, then averaged the total cost at all the stores.
The project began in Tennessee in 2021, inspired by national Thanksgiving price research done by the American Farm Bureau Federation.
“We want to help our consumers make the best decisions wisely and provide research-based information that will help them and their families,” Berry said. “We want them to have safe food and not impact their budgets too much.”
Since 2021, Berry and her team have seen a gradual increase in grocery prices that echoes national food inflation trends. In 2021, dinner cost $110. That same meal cost $112 in 2022 and $128 in 2023. But this year, there is a little relief; costs are down.
Berry’s team found that a traditional Thanksgiving dinner to feed 10 people in 2024 costs about $126. If you factor the two most expensive grocery stores out of the mix – The Fresh Market and Whole Foods – the average dinner cost goes down to $116. That comes out to $11.63 per person.
Turkey costs less, while egg prices are higher
One of the biggest factors in this year’s lower meal cost is the turkey, which had a price drop of about $5. A 16-pound bird last year would have cost about $30, but this year, the turkey should run you about $25.
Eggs, on the other hand, have gone up in price by 76%. This is a crucial ingredient for pies and stuffing: it’s not one to skip for Thanksgiving. A carton of eggs is, on average, $4.32 for an 18-pack.
Pumpkin pie filling saw a sharp price increase in 2024. The canned mixture will cost nearly 80% more this year, according to Berry.
Beware of shrinkflation
While the price tags are getting bigger in the grocery store, food packages are getting smaller, Berry’s team found. Oftentimes, companies will reduce their product size while keeping the price point equal. This has been dubbed “shrinkflation” and it’s a marketing practice that affects one-third of roughly 100 common consumer products, according to a CBS News report.
Berry specifically cited frozen green beans and frozen peas getting smaller packaging over the years of Thanksgiving research.
Why do grocery prices fluctuate?
There are a few reasons that grocery prices can change. Inflation is everywhere and the food industry is no exception.
First, disruptions to a supply chain can cause costs to change. Take Hurricane Helene, for example. The storm caused major damage to roads and a major highway, Interstate 40, leaving shipping and truck routes affected.
Increasing operating costs are also a factor. Because labor and transportation cost more, the end product will come at a higher price.
Thanksgiving ingredient price averages
These are the average prices from 16 grocery stores across Tennessee. The prices reflect the cheapest possible option, often the store brand products, according to Berry.
Turkey, 16 lbs. $25.46Ham, 4 lbs. $21.10Frozen green peas, 1 lb. $2.09Frozen green beans, 1 lb. $2.43Pie shells (2) $3.68Sweet potatoes, 3 lbs. $3.17Russet potatoes, 5 lbs. $3.78Prepared vegetable tray, 1 lb. $8.20Fresh cranberries, 12 oz. $2.48Canned pumpkin pie mix or filling, 30 oz. (x2) $7.30Jellied cranberry sauce, 14 oz. $2.23Can cream of mushroom soup, 10.5 oz. $1.34Sugar, 4 lbs. $3.91Pecan halves, 10 oz. $7.70Marshmallows, 1 lb. $2.37Stuffing mix, 6 oz. (x2) $3.24Crispy fried onions, 6 oz. $2.91Cans of evaporated milk, 12 oz. (x2) $2.98Rolls, 12-pack $3.88Milk, whole, 1 gallon. $4.01Whipping cream, a half pint $3.16Butter, 1 lb. $5.03Eggs, 18-count $4.32Tips to save at the supermarket for Thanksgiving
There are ways to save money when preparing a Thanksgiving meal. It comes down to planning ahead and knowing exactly what ingredients you need. Berry shared her best tips to save at the supermarket.
Coupons, coupons, coupons. Find and use the ads that grocery stores put out each week.Reflect on last year’s meal. Did you have any wasted food? Can you cut back?Use Save The Food’s Guest-imator to understand how much food to cook.Shop smart. Make a list.If you have leftovers, use them wisely and within 3-4 days.