Greek exports are expected to suffer a double hit following the US government’s decision to impose new tariffs, just as the American market was growing in importance for Greek products.
Between 2020 and 2024, the value of Greek exports to the United States grew at an average annual rate of 20.4%. The share of exports headed to the US rose from 3.75% of Greece’s total exports in 2020 to 4.89% in 2024.
Greece maintained a trade surplus with the US, which reached €268.19 million in 2024. However, this marked a sharp decline from the €617.71 million surplus recorded in 2023.
The first blow will be direct: Greek products will become more expensive for American consumers, making them less competitive. Despite efforts by Greek companies and their US-based distributors to absorb part of the additional cost, the tariffs are expected to have an immediate impact.
According to the Greek Exporters’ Association (SEVE), exports to the US reached €2.411 billion in 2024, making the US the fifth-largest destination for Greek goods.
Products expected to be hit hardest include olives, cement, aluminum, feta cheese, olive oil and canned peaches. Greek exporters remain hopeful that some of these goods may be exempt from the new US tariff policy, as was the case during US President Donald Trump’s first term, when Greek olive oil and table olives were excluded.
The United States is also Greece’s fifth-largest market for feta exports.
“We’re holding onto a small hope that Greek wine will be exempt, especially since there’s an effort, also from the Greek Wine Federation (SEO), to ensure that American wine and bourbon are excluded from the EU’s potential countermeasures,” SEO President Yannis Voyatzis tells Kathimerini.
While wine isn’t among Greece’s top 10 exports to the US – valued at around €20 million in 2024 – it remains a promising market due to the high average price of Greek wines.
The second blow will be indirect, a “collateral loss,” according to the head of SEVE, Alkiviadis Kalampokis. These losses relate to potential declines in Greek exports to key EU trading partners affected by the US tariffs.
“Sixty-five percent of our exports go to EU member-states. The new tariffs will primarily impact countries like Germany, Italy and France – Greece’s main trade partners,” he said.
A slowdown in these economies would likely reduce consumer purchasing power, leading to lower demand for Greek exports in those markets.
A recent study by the National Bank of Greece estimated that a blanket 10% tariff increase on all EU exports to the US could reduce total Greek exports by approximately 1.7% in real terms and lower Greece’s GDP by 0.4% cumulatively through the end of 2026.
Despite the challenges, exporters see two possible buffers against the fallout. First is the growing willingness among US consumers to pay more for high-quality goods. Second is the strengthening of the US dollar against the euro, which could help offset some of the cost increases.
“The big challenge, of course, is to expand into other markets, such as Arab countries, Southeast Asia, Japan and Canada,” Kalampokis concluded.