The production forecasts for the 2024/25 olive growing season in the main producing countries were illustrated by international consultants and experts in the olive growing sector at Mercacei, the main Spanish oil newspaper with which L’OlivoNews collaborate.
Said of the Italian production, which according to the Ismea-Unaprol estimates will not exceed 224 thousand tons, so much so that theInterprofession recommends alternative strategies for the valorization of the product, here are the indications that have been collected from the other countries of the Mediterranean basin.
Spain
The director ofSpanish Association of Olive Growing Municipalities (AEMO), José María Penco, explained that making a harvest forecast in Spain for this campaign is “more difficult than ever because we are faced with a very uncertain production for various reasons.”
According to him, there is great heterogeneity between one area and another, even within the same region or province, to which is added the lack of rainfall in much of Andalusia during the end of summer and the beginning of autumn, “which casts even more uncertainty. In the center of national production it hasn’t rained since last May and, moreover, no major storms are expected in these first two weeks of October”.
However, he recalled that last spring both the rains and the temperatures were favorable. Therefore, After two years of drought and low production, rainfall has remained around the historical average if not even higher. Furthermore, he specifies, during flowering and fruit setting, temperatures were truly favorable. “In June everything seemed in our favor and we expected a good harvest, given the evident fruit set on the tree. A harvest forecast that could therefore have been around 1,5 million tons”, explains Penco.
However, he highlighted that the dry olive groves had seen and suffered for four months, from June to September inclusive, without any addition of humidity to the soil, “which causes a slowing down of the normal development of the fruit and lipogenesis or oil formation, is already compromised. Furthermore, the olive is wrinkled and small, especially in some of the main varieties of our country such as the picual or the arbequina, cultivars more sensitive to the lack of water in arid areas.. Due to the great uncertainty that exists, it is risky to make estimates. In any case, if we were to identify a production range in Spain, we could predict it, with due caution, between 1,2 and 1,4 million tons”.
Greece
In the case of Greece, the broker specialized in the Greek market Luigino Mazzei he stressed that a total of approximately is estimated 250.000 ton, which represents a “significant increase”. Around 100 thousand euros will come from the Peloponnese area, 70 thousand from Crete; 30 thousand from the islands of Zakynthos, Corfu, Mytilini and Rhodes (Islands), the same amount from mainland Greece and 20 thousand from northern Greece. “The weather has been dry so far – he added – with maximum temperatures between 30 and 33°C, with very little rain. There were no attacks by the olive fly or fungal diseases. Due to the significant increase in market prices, producers will be inclined to anticipate the harvest. Especially in the Peloponnese and northern Greece, there could already be offers of new oil between mid and late October.”
To about, Konstantinos Tsoronis, chemist and oleologist, highlighted that the climatic conditions so far have led to a very early ripening of the olives. Furthermore, in his opinion, “these particular conditions recorded so far, with very high temperatures for long periods and sporadic cold days, have helped producers to have olives free from infections, such as the olive fly and anthracnose”. According to Tsoronis, irrigated olive groves will not have any particular problems, so they are expected to ensure excellent yields. “Optimistic forecasts indicate a production of 250.000 tons – he added – perhaps a little more if we get good rains between now and harvest. On the other hand, if we have to face high temperatures again, production could be reduced by 10% compared to the initial forecasts.”
Tunisia
Italian commercial agent and broker Adriano Caramia said that the next harvest in Tunisia will be “very good” and – although not close to the production record achieved in the 2019/20 campaign, which was around 440.000 tonnes according to data from the International Olive Council – the expected production will be between between 280.000 and 320.000 tons.
In his opinion, the good situation at the beginning of the summer has improved significantly thanks to the beneficial rainfall received at the end of the summer season throughout Tunisia, especially in the area of Sfax and Gabes, where there has been severe water stress due to the lack of rain in recent months.
According to Caramia, the vegetative state of plants is also “very good” and so far no presence of pathogens has been confirmed, except at a strictly local level.
“The weather trend in the coming weeks – he concluded – It will be important to maintain the good forecasts or even improve them, as yields increase. Even from a qualitative point of view, expectations are optimistic, foreseeing a significant share of extra virgin olive oils”.
Morocco
As for Morocco, Noereddine Ouazzani, international expert on olive growing, explains that production for the 2024/25 olive growing season will suffer an “undeniable” decline for the third consecutive yearExceptionally high temperatures and very hot days in winter, spring and summer, combined with a lack of rain, especially in summer, were the main climatic features.
“Exceptionally high temperatures were recorded, especially during the months of July and August. These conditions caused severe water stress in the fruits of olive groves in arid areas, which ended up decreasing production” he pointed out.
According to Ouazzani, current estimates from operators in the Moroccan olive oil sector place production between 60.000 and 80.000 tons, which represents a drop of between 45 and 60% compared to the production of a normal year, when it is between 120.000 and 180.000 tons. However, he said that if the lack of water persists, with its consequences on the size of the fruit and the extractability of the olive oil, the forecasts place the production between 40.000 and 60.000 tons, so a short olive campaign is expected. Most of this production will come from traditional irrigated olive groves and intensive olive groves that represent about 30% of Morocco’s total olive-growing area of 1,2 million hectares.
Turkey
on your part, Murat Küçükçakıre, agronomist and consultant for several projects in Türkiye and Azerbaijan, recalls that this country broke a historic production record in 2022 and that Good production is expected for the 2024 harvest. In his opinion, the dry summer months and the lack of rain in some regions have partially affected production. It is estimated that the average production will be around 350.000-360.000 tons, although official institutions continue to work on these forecasts.
Another factor that, in his opinion, will influence the production of olive oil is the price of table olives. “Currently we are talking about an average price of less than 1 euro, so a significant amount will be allocated to the production of olive oil”, he added.
Portugal
In Portugal – he reported Alberto Serralha, CEO of the Agricultural Company Ouro Vegetal, international olive oil producer and consultant – the production it should be higher than the previous year, but far from the record of the 2019/20 season. “The climate – he reported – has been generally favorable to the olive tree, as in the main production areas between 600 and 800 mm of rain per m2+ have accumulated. There have been no heat waves in spring and the summer has been much cooler than in previous years. Production is very irregular, the younger fields have a high fruit load, while the older super-intensive fields have, in general, a medium-low harvest. The dry soils vary depending on the previous year’s harvest, respecting the usual olive tree productive alternation”.
In his opinion, the mills will restart slowly in the next few days and will register greater intensity from October 7th. “Temperatures are more favorable than in previous years, but the fat accumulated in the fruits is not high. Production is estimated to be between 170.000 and 200.000 tons of olive oil.”he concluded.