Italy’s Grana Padano cheese exports hit record highs in 2024, driven by soaring global demand and strategic investments. However, looming U.S. tariffs threaten to upend this success. The cheese, a symbol of Italy’s agricultural prowess, faces a pivotal moment as trade tensions between Italy and the U.S. escalate. This article examines the dual forces propelling and jeopardizing this iconic product’s export boom.
The Record-Breaking Growth
Grana Padano exports surged to 2.69 million wheels globally in 2024, a 9.15% increase from 2023, with 52% of production now exported. The U.S. market, though smaller than Germany (634,000 wheels) and France (319,000 wheels), grew to 215,000 wheels—an 8.0% share of total exports. This momentum reflects broader trends: Italy’s PDO (Protected Designation of Origin) cheeses generated €3 billion in export revenue in 2023, accounting for 60% of the country’s dairy export value, and 2024 saw a further 19% rise in Italian food and beverage exports to the U.S., reaching €7.8 billion.
The Tariff Threat
Despite this success, the specter of U.S. tariffs looms large. The 25% tariff imposed during Trump’s first term in 2020—still in effect as of Q1 2025—already caused a 10% drop in wholesale prices and a €65 million loss for producers. New threats of 10–25% tariffs under the Biden administration’s “reciprocal tariff” framework could compound these challenges. Analysts warn that a 10% tariff alone could reduce exports by 16.8%, costing exporters up to €4 billion—a figure that could balloon if tariffs reach 25%.
The U.S., Italy’s second-largest export market (€53.3 billion in 2024), remains vulnerable. Grana Padano and its peers—Parmigiano Reggiano and Pecorino Romano—account for 80% of Italian cheese exports to the U.S., making them prime targets.
Industry Responses and Mitigation Strategies
Producers are not passive. Lactalis Italia, a major player, has allocated €68 million for 2025 to strengthen international markets, including tailored products like a Galbani-branded Grana Padano format for the U.S. market. Meanwhile, the Grana Padano PDO Consortium is leveraging its 12 gold medals at the 2024 International Cheese Awards to bolster brand equity and diversify markets.
Diplomatic efforts also continue. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government has sought tariff exemptions, though progress remains stalled.
Market Uncertainties and Investment Considerations
Investors in Italy’s agri-food sector must weigh two competing dynamics:
1. Structural Strength: Global demand for premium Italian cheeses is robust, with exports to Japan growing 14.9% in 2023 and Burrata’s 22% export surge in 2024.
2. Policy Risks: U.S. tariffs could trigger speculative hoarding, supply chain disruptions, and a resurgence of counterfeit cheeses.
Conclusion: A High-Wire Act for Italy’s Dairy Giants
Grana Padano’s record exports underscore Italy’s competitive edge in premium dairy products. Yet the U.S. tariff threat—already costing producers €65 million—could derail this progress. With €4 billion at risk and the U.S. representing 15% of Italy’s agri-food exports, the stakes are high.
Investors should monitor three key indicators:
– Tariff developments: If the U.S. implements new tariffs, look for drops in Grana Padano exports and rising prices.
– Market diversification: Success in Japan and other markets could mitigate U.S. losses.
– Company resilience: Firms like Lactalis and Barilla (BRL.MI) that invest in innovation and lobbying may weather tariffs better.
For now, the cheese’s global appeal—evident in its 9,200 monthly Google searches—suggests long-term demand remains strong. But as tariffs linger, the next chapter hinges on trade diplomacy as much as market fundamentals.