The global olive oil market has experienced an incredible amount of flux in the last few years.
During the 2022/23 crop year exports declined by just over 25% according to the International Olive Council, which also revealed the total export value remained at a similar level to the previous year.
Export value increased in 2023/24, by 64.5%, the council adds, saying in the 2024/5 crop year there’s been noticeable recovery in the volume exported, coupled with a drop in unit values.
What does that all mean? Essentially, crops three years ago were dramatically impacted by the environment and disease, driving up price. And as harvests improve, so the price of commodity olive oil is reducing – something we should be cautious of in light of recent heatwaves and wildfires.
Interestingly, despite steep price hikes, driven by lack of supply in the market, consumers have continued to buy olive oil, and are, brands and retailers say, happy to pay more as extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) continues to be widely explored and discussed for its health benefits across myriad platforms.
Those within the industry say public interest in EVOO, particularly, isn’t going anywhere, as they continue to prioritise their health goals and wellbeing as they plan their weekly shop. Analysts agree there’s trajectory for growth, with Horizon Grand View Research, for example, predicting a CAGR of 6.4% in the next five years.
What is happening with this year’s olive oil harvest and prices?
The country most impacted by low olive yields was Spain – the world’s largest producer, pressing around 1.2 million tonnes of oil per year, followed by Italy, Greece and Tunisia, with supply almost halving, says olive oil sommelier, author, international judge and founder of The Olive Oil Guy, Mazen Assaf.
But now there are glimmers of recovery … and hope. “The new crop season is looking healthier in Spain, with yield slowly going back to historical figures. This will certainly lead to alleviations in pricing globally, “ he says. He reminds Speciality Food readers that, in reality, the olive oil market has been greatly undervalued. “It takes a whole year to make olive oil, and roughly 50kg of olives for 5l of oil,” he says. “The truth is that extra virgin olive oil is a fresh fruit juice, cold pressed from olives. It can never be compared to canola oil, or other chemically extracted oils, neither in health benefits, flavour or pricing.”
The Olive Oil Guy launched a month before the price hike crisis, and its suppliers were heavily impacted by drought, forcing Mazen to halt his plans, pausing sales in 2023 for several months.
He views this in a positive light. “As we were a new brand at the time, it encouraged us to position ourselves as more premium, in order to sustain and give back to the dear farmers and growers we collaborate with. Today we are in over 150 distribution channels. We’re grateful for all the progress, and to have endured this difficult phase.”
Tom Woodgate, co-founder of Honest Toil, says the last couple of years in the industry have been “wild”. “We’ve had such unseasonal temperatures time and time again – confirmation that unprecedented weather patterns are affecting food globally in a way we just can’t predict.”
He says he’s optimistic about this November’s harvest. “But, as with most farming, when you’re so hands-on, yield is far from guaranteed, and dependent on a whole range of factors out of your control. It’s farming, not a factory. The bigger industry production can smooth those bumps, but for us and the people we work with, it’s always a bit precarious.”
James Borrett, founder of The Olive Boffin, comments that it’s remarkable how sensitive olive yields are to climate conditions. “Even an unusually dry spring can impact fruit setting before the summer heat arrives. At a commodity level, hotter, drier summers have led to real volatility in prices. At the artisanal end of the market, prices have been much more stable, with only modest increases, but those haven’t fallen back much. That’s partly because wider inflation has driven up the cost of production, from energy, to packaging.”
Citizens of Soil founder, Sarah Vachon, echoes both James and Mazan’s words, saying its commodity prices which are falling, and the bottom line is that olive oil has been too cheap for too long.
“Also, the climate isn’t fixed. It’s something that’s shaking the foundation of our farming systems globally. Extreme weather is affecting pollination and harvest cycles across regions. Not to mention the tree virus that’s taken out more than 20 million trees in Italy’s largest production region, or the wildfires destroying thousands of hectares all in one go – currently blazing across Portugal and Greece.”
All of these compounding factors are hitting at a time when extra virgin olive oil, Sarah adds, is growing massively in use on a global level.
Yacine Amor, managing director of The Artisan Olive Oil Company’s view chimes with Sarah’s. Although he expects to see a return to a more normalised market at the moment, we should remain cautious because of the damage being inflicted by extreme heat and wildfires, and the impact that will have on yields.
Are consumers willing to pay more for olive oil?
Sophie Ziegler-Jones of Suma says the wholesaler’s customers are discerning and value the provenance, quality and ethical sourcing behind its products. Despite price hikes in the olive oil market in the last few years, she adds they’ve continued to experience steady demand, particularly for varieties which are organic or sourced from small, traditional producers. “People recognise olive oil as a kitchen essential, rather than a luxury, and they’re willing to invest,” Sophie explains.
Mazen says consumers are being more savvy than ever when it comes to buying olive oil. “We’ve gone from days where ‘extra virgin’ or ‘cold pressed’ are the benchmark. People are now asking for the varieties, polyphenol counts, harvest dates and origins. And rightfully so. Olive oil is a craft, and deserves this level of reverence.”
“Olive oil is a primary food, and when producers dedicate themselves entirely to one ingredient, the results can be extraordinary,” says James, who thinks consumers are increasingly embracing the world of artisan olive oils. “Customers are increasingly curious about premium oils, and once they’ve had a great tasting experience, they’re comfortable paying for that quality. Much like wine, olive oil has its own spectrum of styles, and people enjoy exploring those differences.”
Tom thinks the willingness to spend more on olive oil is there, provided consumers understand what they’re buying, and where it’s come from. “Once people taste our oil and realise it’s not a blend of various years’ harvest, but is actually from one year’s crop from a single micro-grove, they get very excited. We’re a small team (mostly just the three of us) and determined to keep our oil affordable and accessible without the bumf, big branding or marketing budgets. It’s probably the same in other industries, but I think especially true with extra virgin olive oil, that price is not an accurate indication on quality. Expensive bottles and fancy labels look nice, but don’t improve the contents!”
Sarah says that like other pantry staples like coffee and chocolate, she’s seeing consumers switch to nicer, better quality olive oils. As a brand, Citizens of Soil is pushing education a lot, she adds, explaining that if you show people what good oil should taste like and how it’s made, it can foster an appreciation they’re willing to pay for.
“Also, nutrition is a huge driver. Known since antiquity as a nutrient-rich ‘superfood’, extra virgin olive oil is hitting new levels, with a heap of awareness and research around its anti-inflammatory properties. We see lots more people being recommended EVOO from their health practitioners, but they’re worried about fraud in the industry.”
Being transparent at every stage helps bring trust to a category that can be opaque, Sarah says. “From a sales perspective, we had 10x growth last year with our Olive Oil Club membership, and we’re seeing substantial uplift in our rate-of-sale in retail this year.”
What makes a great extra virgin olive oil?
The experts agree that early harvests, cold extraction and traceability are non-negotiables when it comes to the best extra virgin olive oil.
Extraction within a few hours is key, says Yacine. “And a very careful handling of the olives to avoid damage, which can lead to oxidation. Quality in olive oil can be identified immediately through its smell, and can be measured very easily through chemical tests.”
Tom says it’s freshness that rules. “Olive oil doesn’t get better with age, it’s not wine,” he explains. “If it’s bright, peppery, has that little bitterness and makes you cough slightly in the throat, that’s the good stuff. But consumers should know that the oil changes radically throughout the year and it’s natural that it loses its wow factor after 12 months.”
Sarah says her experience, working directly with award-winning producers across the Mediterranean, means she knows the best extra virgin olive oils have a great deal to commend them. “It’s all about picture-perfect fruit, timing it right as an art and science, and prioritising the highest quality milling possible.”
The best extra virgin olive oils in the world have the following things in common, she adds:
1. Beautiful fruit – most of the best producers pick out the best fruit, often by hand.
2. Good farming practices – paying attention to water (not too much or too little), biodiversity and healthy soils makes for more resilient, happy trees.
3. Timing – there’s an art to picking the moment to harvest, and it’s one that good producers really focus on.
4. Harvesting style – there should be as little damage to the fruit and tree as possible. And the olives need to be picked directly from the tree, not from the ground.
5. Time to mill – there should be a short time between picking and milling, within two to five hours being “top tier”. “But same day is also great if the olives are kept cool out of the sun, and stored in a way they can breathe.”
6. Immaculate milling – high-tech machines, spotlessly-clean facilities and attentive millers should be a given.
7. Filtering – all that vibrancy and sensation straight out of the spout is great, but it won’t last. You need to remove the sediment for any meaningful shelf life.
8. Packaging – it must block out light and air.
9. Storing – it should be kept away from air, heat and light and these are considerations for both storage and transporting.
Mazen echoes many of Sarah’s thoughts, saying there are three things he uses as indicators of quality. Firstly the terroir and harvest – is the land prime for olive trees and when were the olives harvested? The earlier, the better.
Secondly – how quickly after harvest were the olives cold-pressed? Typically within four hours, as Sarah agrees, is prime. And thirdly, storage. “While you might have a great olive oil at harvest, that is not enough to retain quality. Filtration and proper storage away from heat and light is essential. While you might have an olive oil that passes steps one and two, if it is not stored well, it will lose all of its benefits, very quickly.”
In terms of taste, Mazen says the most basic rule is that extra virgin olive oil of quality should smell and taste fresh – “like a bouquet of greens”.
What should retailers be looking out for when buying olive oil?
Traceability and honesty should be the top of your list when searching for new olive oils to add to your shelves, says Tom, who reveals there’s a huge amount of ‘smoke and mirrors’ within the industry, with blending, vague sourcing, greenwashing and even large brands parading as smallscale growers, going on.
As independent retailers are often charged with telling the story and provenance of their stock, it pays to go direct to smaller producers and to get to know them well, he adds.
“Always look for extra virgin olive oil that is single origin,” says Mazen. “When you can identify where the olive oil is from – a particular region to be exact – it gives you more confidence that the olive oil is of higher quality due to its provenance standards. Simple statements on the packaging, like ‘Sparta, Greece’, can typically help you identify authenticity.”
Even better, Mazen continues, is to look for olive oils which state the variety of olive used on the packaging. “There’s 1,600 varieties around the world. Knowing which one your oil was pressed from is an easy way to assess authenticity and provenance.”
Sophie thinks you should pay attention to producers’ sustainability credentials, which continue to be important to shoppers buying in speciality settings. “Customers increasingly want to know who made their olive oil, where and how. Offering a range that includes both everyday cooking oils and premium extra virgin options gives customers choice, while encouraging trade-ups. Organic and Fairtrade certifications, single-estate oils and oils from co-operatives can all help tell a compelling story.”
James also feels choice is key, not just in geography, but in style. “Some oils are mild with a creamy mouthfeel, others grassy and peppery, others deeply fruity. Some shoppers want a specific flavour profile … others are looking for something that reminds them of a trip to the Mediterranean, and some even take a small shot of oil each morning as part of their daily routine!”
Sarah agrees it’s very worthwhile stocking a range that reflects different prices, regions and profiles.
Her key tips for buyers are to choose bottles with a ‘harvest date’. “The expiry or ‘best before’ date only has to be from when it was bottled, which in the case of a commodity product like olive oil, could be months or even a year after it was actually made.”
Look for a precise region of origin, she continues, saying if it can’t be narrowed down to a small area, this is a red flag.
The variety of olive is just as important, Sarah explains. “It shows a connection to the land and a respect for the integrity of the end product. Much like different types of grapes for wine, or beans for coffee, the variety of olive will not only completely change the flavours (from something green, peppery and vegetal, all the way to mellow, fruity and floral), but it can also affect the shelf life.”
Assess whether you think the price is fair. “Stripping back store margins, transport, bottling, labelling, testing, export – you can start to see the base cost per litre that goes to the farmer. On the flip side, if an oil is charging a premium and not disclosing all the details, I wouldn’t pay the price, since it could just be cool packaging and nothing of substance.”
Regulation states the level of free fatty acid for extra virgin olive oil must be under 0.8%, for speciality oils under 0.3%, and the top quality under 0.2%. Ask producers where theirs falls, and as Yacine has already revealed, there are simple kits you can buy to test olive oil samples yourself.
If you really want to get into the details of your oil, Sarah says look for the polyphenol count. Under the EU Regulation 432/2012 health claim, olive oils with 250mg/kg of total polyphenols or more can be classified as ‘high polyphenol’. She, personally, likes to see a number higher than this.
Sarah says buyers in retail must avoid deceptive naming like ‘pure’, ‘light’ and ‘extra light’, and clear containers which will degrade the oil, and ignore terms like ‘first cold pressed’, which she adds, is purely for marketing purposes. “Most modern and high-quality extra virgin olive oil is not actually pressed, it’s extracted. And there is no second or third of anything – just one and done for virgin oils. It also has to be done without heat.”
Her final pearl of wisdom is to remember that colour is not an indicator of quality. “Yes, it is tempting to see a beautiful bright green oil and think it’s better, but it’s just patently not true. In fact, in olive oil competitions and certifications, colour is masked by the classic azure blue tasting glasses, so that opinions are not swayed.”
Expert advice for selling olive oil
Tasting is everything, the experts agree. “When people try our oil, they understand immediately why it’s special,” Tom says. “We only work with oil from the most recent harvest, so always mark the harvest date, which helps people know it’s fresh, seasonal and real. This really is a distinction against the bigger, mass-produced stuff.”
“Whether we’re working with private customers, or supplying trade clients, the most effective way to demonstrate value is to let people try the oil,” James agrees. “Watching someone taste a truly exceptional extra virgin olive oil for the first time is a joy – it can be a revelation, even for seasoned chefs. Once they’ve experienced that depth of flavour, they understand why it’s worth investing in.”
Sarah thinks you should move olive oil away from the ‘edible oils’ category where it sits alongside the likes of sunflower oil. “Extra virgin olive oil belongs with your fresh food. I also think spelling out flavour notes and pairings is key for customers to understand more ways to use it than just salads and breads. Highlighting things like polyphenols or nutritional density, as well as harvest dates, can help guide them on the journey, and help them better compare.”
Highlight the stories behind your olive oil collection, says Sophie – the producer, the region, sustainable practices and more. Do this via shelf talkers, tastings and recipe cards. As Sarah suggests, Sophie also believes olive oil should be positioned close to complementary products such as artisan breads, olives and pasta to inspire purchase. “Educating customers on how to taste olive oil – much like wine – can also elevate its perceived value,” she adds.
For Yacine, shelf labelling of most olive oils could be clearer. As an independent retailer, demonstrate the care you’ve put into sourcing products by placing alongside a description with the region of the oil, olive variety, intensity and food pairings. “It can also be helpful,” reflecting Sarah’s thoughts, “to mention the acidity and polyphenol levels, as they will convey a very clear picture of the quality differential to a supermarket olive oil. For example, most of our olive oils have an acidity of less than 0.25% compared to a standard supermarket oil at 0/8%. And we only look for high polyphenol olive oils. Some of our oils exceed 500mg/kg. This is a very easy way of explaining how radically different a premium extra virgin olive oil can be.”
Can you cook with extra virgin olive oil?
Yes you can. Across the Mediterranean olive oil has been used as a primary cooking oil for thousands of years. Use it for drizzling, sautéing and light frying, roasting and more. We don’t suggest using your very best extra virgin olive oil for deep frying – you’ll be wasting all that precious flavour. Find out more about cooking oils here.
Does olive oil go bad?
The fresher your olive oil, the better. Unopened, stored in a dark bottle in a cool place, olive oil can last for 18 to 24 months. However, the quality will degrade dramatically over time. If olive oil is being purchased with health in mind, it pays to buy varieties that are less than three months old.
Is olive oil healthy?
A raft of nutritionists and scientists say so. Olive oil is attributed to claims of better heart health and immunity thanks to its cocktail of antioxidants, beneficial fats and other compounds. Look for varieties with a minimum polyphenol level of 250mg/kg.
Which olive oil is best?
It has to be extra virgin olive oil. Just play around with varieties and brands to find the flavour profiles you’re looking for. Something grassy and vivid for dressings and dips, and something a touch lighter and sweeter for baking.
Which olives are highest in polyphenols?
Coratina and Koroneikiyield olives are thought to have some of the highest levels of polyphenols.
Dining and Cooking