Greece’s competition authority has identified practices of artificial scarcity in the domestic olive oil market aimed at driving up prices, according to a research study examining price links among producers in Greece, Spain and Italy, Europe’s three largest olive oil producers.
The problem appears particularly acute after years of sharp price increases caused by reduced output. Producers hesitate to sell, expecting higher prices, even when product availability may be sufficient, the study says.
Data from the Hellenic Statistical Authority show retail olive oil prices rose 58.5% by the end of 2023 and fell just 0.58% by the end of 2024. The largest decline came in 2025, with prices in December down 34% from earlier. Even so, prices never returned to pre-2023 levels, and the cumulative increase over five years reached 57.17%.
The study also finds Greek producers tend to store olive oil and release it gradually based on their own financial needs rather than responding immediately to international price fluctuations. “This creates a delayed response to market fluctuations,” the authors note, which can later generate asymmetries at the retail level.
Inelastic supply is also linked to high domestic consumption and the prevalence of small producers. Greece has the world’s highest per capita olive oil consumption, and a large share of output is used within households or family networks, limiting market supply even during international demand shocks.
Price pressures are also linked to exports. More than half of Greek olive oil production is exported, with over 60% going to Italy for bottling. Italian buyers’ prices depend on what they pay for Spanish oil, meaning droughts in Spain can raise Greek prices even when domestic production is strong.
Greek production in 2024/2025 is estimated at 250,000 tons, up from 192,000 in 2023/24.
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