Feb 4, 2026
IndexBox has just published a new report: U.S. – Refined Olive Oil – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.
The US refined olive oil market is forecast to grow slowly, reaching 706K tons in volume and $2.1B in value by 2035. In 2024, domestic consumption and production continued their multi-year upward trends, hitting 686K tons and 611K tons respectively. Imports, led by Spain, Italy, and Turkey, saw a slight volume decline but a significant 35% surge in average import price to $7,759/ton. Exports grew steadily, primarily to Canada and Mexico. The market value remained stable at $2B in 2024, with production value at $1.8B.
Key Findings
Market forecast to reach 706K tons and $2.1B by 2035, indicating slow but steady growthDomestic production (611K tons) meets majority of US consumption (686K tons) in 2024Spain is the dominant import supplier, accounting for 43% of volume and 47% of valueAverage import price soared 35% to $7,759/ton in 2024, highlighting significant cost inflationCanada is the primary export destination, receiving 64% of US refined olive oil shipmentsMarket Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for refined olive oil in the United States, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.3% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 706K tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +0.5% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $2.1B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
ConsumptionUnited States’s Consumption of Refined Olive Oil
In 2024, consumption of refined olive oil increased by 2% to 686K tons, rising for the fifth year in a row after two years of decline. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the consumption volume increased by 5.1%. Over the period under review, consumption reached the maximum volume in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.
The revenue of the refined olive oil market in the United States contracted slightly to $2B in 2024, almost unchanged from the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $2B, leveling off in the following year.
ProductionUnited States’s Production of Refined Olive Oil
Refined olive oil production in the United States was estimated at 611K tons in 2024, growing by 2.8% against 2023 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 8.5% against the previous year. Refined olive oil production peaked in 2024 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.
In value terms, refined olive oil production dropped to $1.8B in 2024. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 with an increase of 17% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $1.8B, leveling off in the following year.
ImportsUnited States’s Imports of Refined Olive Oil
In 2024, the amount of refined olive oil imported into the United States declined to 88K tons, falling by -2.9% compared with 2023 figures. Overall, imports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when imports increased by 28% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 119K tons. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.
In value terms, refined olive oil imports soared to $685M in 2024. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed prominent growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 56%. Imports peaked in 2024 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.
Imports By Country
In 2024, Spain (38K tons) constituted the largest refined olive oil supplier to the United States, accounting for a 43% share of total imports. Moreover, refined olive oil imports from Spain exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Italy (18K tons), twofold. Turkey (18K tons) ranked third in terms of total imports with a 20% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume from Spain amounted to +5.9%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Italy (-6.3% per year) and Turkey (-1.1% per year).
In value terms, Spain ($320M) constituted the largest supplier of refined olive oil to the United States, comprising 47% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Italy ($148M), with a 22% share of total imports. It was followed by Turkey, with a 17% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from Spain totaled +14.0%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Italy (+0.8% per year) and Turkey (+5.3% per year).
Import Prices By Country
The average refined olive oil import price stood at $7,759 per ton in 2024, growing by 35% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a prominent increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2023 when the average import price increased by 47%. The import price peaked in 2024 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Spain ($8,390 per ton), while the price for Morocco ($3,389 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tunisia (+7.9%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.
ExportsUnited States’s Exports of Refined Olive Oil
In 2024, overseas shipments of refined olive oil increased by 4.8% to 14K tons, rising for the fifth year in a row after two years of decline. In general, exports showed a prominent increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 when exports increased by 40% against the previous year. The exports peaked in 2024 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.
In value terms, refined olive oil exports totaled $41M in 2024. Over the period under review, exports recorded a prominent expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 36% against the previous year. The exports peaked in 2024 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.
Exports By Country
Canada (9K tons) was the main destination for refined olive oil exports from the United States, with a 64% share of total exports. Moreover, refined olive oil exports to Canada exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Mexico (4.1K tons), twofold.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Canada totaled +12.4%.
In value terms, the largest markets for refined olive oil exported from the United States were Canada ($23M) and Mexico ($14M).
In terms of the main countries of destination, Canada, with a CAGR of +11.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review.
Export Prices By Country
In 2024, the average refined olive oil export price amounted to $2,872 per ton, reducing by -3.3% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.4%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when the average export price increased by 11%. The export price peaked at $3,057 per ton in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the export prices failed to regain momentum.
Average prices varied somewhat for the major external markets. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($3,548 per ton), while the average price for exports to Canada stood at $2,511 per ton.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Mexico (+6.1%).
Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform
This report provides a comprehensive view of the refined olive oil industry in the United States, tracking demand, supply, and trade flows across the national value chain. It explains how demand across key channels and end-use segments shapes consumption patterns, while also mapping the role of input availability, production efficiency, and regulatory standards on supply.
Beyond headline metrics, the study benchmarks prices, margins, and trade routes so you can see where value is created and how it moves between domestic suppliers and international partners. The analysis is designed to support strategic planning, market entry, portfolio prioritization, and risk management in the refined olive oil landscape in the United States.
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Key findings
Domestic demand is shaped by both household and industrial usage, with trade flows linking local supply to imports and exports.
Pricing dynamics reflect unit values, freight costs, exchange rates, and regulatory shifts that affect sourcing decisions.
Supply depends on input availability and production efficiency, creating a distinct national cost curve.
Market concentration varies by segment, creating different competitive landscapes and entry barriers.
The 2035 outlook highlights where capacity investment and demand growth are most aligned within the country.
Report scope
The report combines market sizing with trade intelligence and price analytics for the United States. It covers both historical performance and the forward outlook to 2035, allowing you to compare cycles, structural shifts, and policy impacts.
Market size and growth in value and volume terms
Consumption structure by end-use segments
Production capacity, output, and cost dynamics
Trade flows, exporters, importers, and balances
Price benchmarks, unit values, and margin signals
Competitive context and market entry conditions
Product coverageProdcom 10415310 – Refined olive oil and its fractions (excluding chemically modified)Country coverageCountry profile and benchmarks
This report provides a consistent view of market size, trade balance, prices, and per-capita indicators for the United States. The profile highlights demand structure and trade position, enabling benchmarking against regional and global peers.
Methodology
The analysis is built on a multi-source framework that combines official statistics, trade records, company disclosures, and expert validation. Data are standardized, reconciled, and cross-checked to ensure consistency across time series.
International trade data (exports, imports, and mirror statistics)
National production and consumption statistics
Company-level information from financial filings and public releases
Price series and unit value benchmarks
Analyst review, outlier checks, and time-series validation
All data are normalized to a common product definition and mapped to a consistent set of codes. This ensures that comparisons across time are aligned and actionable.
Forecasts to 2035
The forecast horizon extends to 2035 and is based on a structured model that links refined olive oil demand and supply to macroeconomic indicators, trade patterns, and sector-specific drivers. The model captures both cyclical and structural factors and reflects known policy and technology shifts in the United States.
Historical baseline: 2012-2025
Forecast horizon: 2026-2035
Scenario-based sensitivity to income growth, substitution, and regulation
Capacity and investment outlook for major producing companies
Each projection is built from national historical patterns and the broader regional context, allowing the report to show where growth is concentrated and where risks are elevated.
Price analysis and trade dynamics
Prices are analyzed in detail, including export and import unit values, regional spreads, and changes in trade costs. The report highlights how seasonality, freight rates, exchange rates, and supply disruptions influence pricing and margins.
Price benchmarks by country and sub-region
Export and import unit value trends
Seasonality and calendar effects in trade flows
Price outlook to 2035 under baseline assumptions
Profiles of market participants
Key producers, exporters, and distributors are profiled with a focus on their operational scale, geographic footprint, product mix, and market positioning. This helps identify competitive pressure points, partnership opportunities, and routes to differentiation.
Business focus and production capabilities
Geographic reach and distribution networks
Cost structure and pricing strategy indicators
Compliance, certification, and sustainability context
How to use this report
Quantify domestic demand and identify the most attractive segments
Evaluate export opportunities and prioritize target destinations
Track price dynamics and protect margins
Benchmark performance against leading competitors
Build evidence-based forecasts for investment decisions
This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, wholesalers, investors, and advisors who need a clear, data-driven picture of refined olive oil dynamics in the United States.
FAQ
What is included in the refined olive oil market in the United States?
The market size aggregates consumption and trade data, presented in both value and volume terms.
How are the forecasts to 2035 built?
The projections combine historical trends with macroeconomic indicators, trade dynamics, and sector-specific drivers.
Does the report cover prices and margins?
Yes, it includes export and import unit values, regional spreads, and a pricing outlook to 2035.
Which benchmarks are included?
The report benchmarks market size, trade balance, prices, and per-capita indicators for the United States.
Can this report support market entry decisions?
Yes, it highlights demand hotspots, trade routes, pricing trends, and competitive context.
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