OIV: tariffs and climate weigh on wine trade

The OIV’s annual report of the global wine sector confirms another testing year, as tariffs, climate pressures and softer demand continued to shape the market.

The global wine sector continued to face pressure in 2025 as tariff disruption, climate volatility and weaker consumer demand pushed down production, consumption and trade volumes, according to the latest annual report from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV).

Released yesterday, 12 May, the OIV’s State of the World Wine Sector in 2025 found that global wine production reached an estimated 227 million hectolitres (mhl) in 2025, up just 0.6% on the historically low 2024 level. Despite the slight increase, this marks the third consecutive year of low global output and leaves production 9.4% below the five-year average.

The OIV said severe weather events remained a major factor shaping production, with early frosts, excessive rainfall and prolonged drought affecting vineyard productivity across both hemispheres.

Global vineyard surface area also declined for the sixth consecutive year, falling 0.8% to 7.0 million hectares in 2025 as major wine-producing countries continued to adjust vineyard area to market conditions.

Consumption continues downward trend

World wine consumption is estimated at 208mhl in 2025, down 2.7% compared with 2024. The OIV said the decline reflects “long-term structural shifts in mature markets, changing consumer behaviour and recent economic pressure on purchasing power”.

The report noted that global consumption has been falling steadily since 2018, with volumes down 14% over that period.

Nine of the world’s top 10 wine markets recorded lower consumption volumes in 2025. The US, still the world’s largest wine market, saw consumption fall 4.3% to 31.9mhl.

France, the second-largest market globally, recorded a 3.2% decline to 22.0mhl, while Italy fell 9.4% to 20.2mhl.

The UK, ranked fifth globally, also posted a decline, with wine consumption down 2.4% to 12.3mhl.

However, some markets bucked the trend. Portugal recorded a record-high 5.6mhl of wine consumption in 2025, up 5.6% year-on-year. Brazil also reached its highest-ever consumption volume at 4.4mhl, up 41.9% from 2024, while Japan rose 6.8% to 3.3mhl.

Trade hit by tariffs and uncertainty

International wine trade also contracted in 2025 as tariff-related uncertainty, particularly in the US market, softer demand and wider trade tensions weighed on exports.

Global wine exports fell 4.7% by volume to 94.8mhl, while export value dropped 6.7% to €33.8 billion.

Despite the decline, the OIV noted that export value remains “at significantly higher levels than pre-COVID”, while the proportion of wine traded globally remains historically high at 46%.

US wine imports declined to €5.5bn, down 12% compared with 2024.

The average export price fell 2.1% to €3.56/litre, though the OIV said this remained the third-highest level on record and still 24% above the pre-Covid period.

Bottled wine continued to dominate global trade, accounting for 51.1% of trade volumes and 66.4% of value, though the category declined by 5.7% in volume and 8.9% in value.

Sparkling wine volumes fell 2.7%, with value down 6.1%.

Commenting on the findings, OIV director general John Barker said: “Over the past few years, the wine sector has been adapting to ongoing climatic, economic and societal challenges. In 2025, the disruption to international trade through tariff policies was yet another external impact that producers, exporters and supply chain must manage.

“Overall, the sector is showing its resilience, both looking for new market opportunities and adjusting production capacity in line with demand. Trade and product value remain strong and recent bilateral or multilateral trade agreements will help to create positive conditions for evolving markets.

“The OIV will continue to support its members and the sector by sharing key data, developing science-based standards and recommendations, and promoting international cooperation to progress our shared interests.”

The report said a third consecutive year of comparatively low production has helped keep production and consumption broadly balanced, limiting stock pressure despite weaker global demand.