Italian wine producers are under pressure after two decades of steady growth, and industry executives and analysts say the problem is less a collapse of the sector than a business model that no longer fits the market.
That was the central message at “Envisioning2035 – Wine (R)evolution,” a summit organized by FreedL Group in Milan, where producers, consultants, recruiters and market analysts argued that Italian wine must change how it is managed, marketed and sold if it wants to regain competitiveness.
The discussion came as global wine exports fell to €33.8 billion in 2025 and Italy’s wine exports declined 3.6% by value, according to figures presented by Denis Pantini, head of Nomisma Wine Monitor. At the same time, speakers pointed to signs that demand is shifting rather than disappearing. Wine tourism generated €3.1 billion for Italian wineries, and emerging markets increased their share of Italian wine exports to 19.5% in 2025 from 15.1% in 2019.
Edoardo Freddi, chief executive of FreedL Group, said the sector is not facing a simple crisis in product quality or reputation. He said the deeper issue is that many wineries still rely on an outdated way of thinking about wine, from promotion to distribution to storytelling, while consumers and competitors have moved faster.
The summit focused on three broad themes: the structure of wine companies, changing consumer behavior and the economic value of identity. Speakers said export strategy can no longer be treated mainly as trade fair participation or generic promotion. Instead, wineries need specific plans by geography, sales channel and consumer segment. They also said producers must pay closer attention to staffing, data analysis, margins and the ability to redesign their businesses for a more selective market.
Consumer habits were another major concern. Participants said Italian wine no longer competes only with other wines. It now competes with spirits, cocktails, premium beer and more immediate social drinking rituals. They also said digital media, online communities, e-commerce, podcasts and artificial intelligence are changing how younger consumers discover and buy wine.
That shift has raised questions about how Italy presents one of its traditional strengths: origin. Speakers said terroir, appellations and production culture remain important, but they must be explained in ways that are easier to understand and more adaptable for different audiences. They argued that wine tourism should also move beyond hospitality alone and become a stronger commercial tool that builds lasting customer relationships after a winery visit.
One of the clearest warnings came from Luca Castagnetti, an accountant and founder of the Centro Studi Management DiVino at Studio Impresa, who said the sector is entering a phase marked by selection between financially solid companies and weaker business models. Drawing on years of monitoring 1,000 Italian wineries organized as corporations and cooperatives, he said more than 50% of the companies tracked in 2024 had declining revenue and profitability, especially smaller firms.
He added that early evidence from 2025 suggests the slowdown is now affecting larger wineries as well. Even among companies with revenue above €20 million, he said, the share reporting falling sales and tighter margins is rising.
Castagnetti said vineyard values still provide an important asset base for many producers, but they can also hide whether a winery’s operations are truly sustainable. In difficult markets, he said, product quality and appellation strength are not enough if a company cannot generate cash.
His remarks reflected a broader concern heard throughout the event: liquidity has become central as volumes weaken and price competition intensifies in a market where supply exceeds demand. Alessandro Mutinelli, chairman and chief executive of Italian Wine Brands, said cash management becomes decisive when revenue falls because access to credit gets harder and more expensive while inventories move more slowly.
Mutinelli said wineries may need to reduce stock even through promotions, postpone nonessential investments, sell noncore assets and cut operating costs that do not produce revenue. He warned that companies can survive accounting losses for some time but can fail very quickly if lenders pull back financing.
The debate also turned to public policy and industry institutions. Castagnetti said banks are increasingly focused on cash flow generation, while consortia can play an important role in managing supply but often face conflicting internal interests. He also warned that public subsidies risk supporting production-side investment without enough verification of real market demand.
For that reason, he argued that future public resources should be directed less toward broad support for productive capacity and more toward demand creation, exports, commercial processes and communication aimed at younger consumers. Continuing to expand production without knowing who will buy it, he suggested, would deepen imbalances already visible in the market.
Ettore Nicoletto, a longtime wine executive, said the industry must also reconsider some of its assumptions. He pointed to what he described as an uncritical link between wine and territory, overreliance on appellations as the only measure of value and a tendency among producers to stay focused on established winning categories instead of trying new varieties or styles.
That inertia helped build important assets over time, he said, but now risks becoming a structural limit. Nicoletto called for stronger leadership able to read markets with more competence and vision. He said both cooperative and private producers need a better balance between outside managerial expertise and entrepreneurial instinct if they want to adapt.
The labor issue was another recurring theme. Pierluigi Catello, executive manager for food and wine at recruiter Michael Page, said Italian wine faces a structural management challenge because it struggles to attract talent, retain it and open itself to skills from other sectors.
He blamed several factors: weak career paths, family-controlled ceilings inside companies and almost no employer branding. But he said the deeper problem is cultural. Too many businesses still prefer trusted insiders over qualified managers, delegate tasks without granting real autonomy and reward loyalty more than merit.
According to Catello, that has contributed to aging management teams, too few women in top roles and organizations poorly equipped for a market that demands speed and managerial skill. He said the answer is not simply hiring more people but hiring people with expertise in margins, brand development and data analysis.
Taken together, the discussion in Milan showed an industry trying to define whether it is living through a downturn or a forced transition. The numbers point to weaker exports and growing financial strain across wineries of different sizes. But they also show areas of opportunity in tourism and newer foreign markets.
The message from speakers was that Italian wine still has strong assets in reputation, land value and production culture. What it lacks in many cases is a business structure ready for slower demand growth, sharper competition and faster changes in consumer behavior. In that view, competitiveness will depend less on celebrating wine as a symbol of national excellence than on treating wineries as companies that need strategy, capital discipline and management capable of adapting quickly.
Dining and Cooking