A person cools off in a fountain near the Eiffel Tower in Paris on the 24th of last month (local time) as a record-breaking heat wave swept across Europe. AP-Yonhap
Record-breaking heat across Europe is dealing a direct blow to agricultural and livestock production, raising growing concerns that prices of European food products including olive oil could rise again. With heat topping 40 degrees Celsius persisting over soil already parched by insufficient winter and spring rainfall, production of olives, sunflowers and grains, as well as livestock products such as milk and cheese, has been thrown into crisis.
According to Reuters and other foreign media on the 5th, major European countries including Spain, France and Germany have been recording extreme heat day after day. On June 23, the daytime high in Bilbao, Spain, reached 42.7 degrees Celsius, while Pissos, France, soared to 44.3 degrees. Berlin, Germany, also recorded 41.7 degrees on June 28, marking one of the hottest days on record.
The heat wave occurred as hot air from North Africa lingered over Europe for an extended period as a “heat dome” phenomenon, at a time when soil moisture had greatly diminished due to insufficient winter and spring rainfall. A vicious cycle continued in which the parched surface absorbed more solar heat, driving temperatures even higher. Reduced Arctic sea ice and rising Mediterranean sea surface temperatures have also been cited as factors fueling the heat wave.
The first item of concern is olive oil. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the international price of olive oil hit a record high of $10,281.37 per ton in January 2024, when Europe suffered severe drought, before falling to $5,075.41 last June. However, it rebounded again, recovering the $6,000 level this January, and rose to $6,198.30 last month. The industry suggests that if the heat wave becomes prolonged, olive harvests will deteriorate, potentially making the price increase even steeper.
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The impact of abnormal climate is also showing in European agri-food exports. According to data released by the European Commission on June 26, EU agri-food exports from January to April this year totaled 77.6 billion euros, down 3% (2.3 billion euros) from the same period a year earlier. In particular, olive and olive oil exports fell 17%, while wine exports also declined 5% to 5.04 billion euros.
There is also a possibility that the heat wave will spread across the cooking oil market. This is because drought damage to sunflower cultivation areas is intensifying as water levels in the Po River basin, Italy’s largest agricultural region, have dropped significantly. As a result, sunflower seed production has decreased, and related imports are reported to have roughly doubled from last year.
Livestock industry damage is also materializing. As “heat stress” caused by high temperatures worsens, dairy cows produce less milk, pigs grow more slowly, and chickens face a greater risk of mass deaths. The French Ministry of Agriculture forecast that this heat wave will reduce overall production of grains, livestock products, fruits and vegetables. Reuters also reported that French milk production could fall by 15 to 20%.
Domestic food industry players are also closely watching the situation. Since European raw materials such as cheese, butter and olive oil account for a large share, cost burdens could increase if the heat wave becomes prolonged. “European food ingredients such as cheese have well-established refrigerated and frozen logistics systems, so there is no major supply problem for now,” a food industry official said. “But if the heat wave is prolonged and local agricultural production declines, raising raw material prices could affect food prices on domestic tables as well.”
Dining and Cooking