French wine production is set to fall to its lowest level in almost 70 years in 2026, with drought and record summer heat expected to cut output by 6 per cent and halve Champagne production, according to estimates from France’s agriculture ministry published on Monday.
The ministry’s statistics service Agreste forecast national production at 33.9 million hectolitres, equivalent to about 4.5 billion standard bottles. That would be 17 per cent below the 2021–2025 average and follow already weak harvests in 2024 and 2025.
Agreste said favourable conditions earlier in the year had supported grape development, but severe summer drought and repeated heatwaves reduced yields. The service said the heat caused sunscald, scorching, defoliation and wilting in some vineyards, while soil drought intensified across the country.
The impact has been particularly severe in Champagne, where production is forecast to fall 49 per cent from 2025 and 47 per cent below the five-year average. Burgundy-Beaujolais output is expected to drop by about a third, while Val de Loire and Charentes are forecast to decline by 12 per cent and 6 per cent respectively.
The harvest has started unusually early across France, with some vineyards beginning to pick grapes in August. The Guardian reported that harvest dates have advanced gradually over the past four decades as warmer conditions have affected the timing of grape ripening.
Cécile Mathiaud of the Burgundy wine producers association questioned the government’s estimate for her region while acknowledging that yields would be lower. “We know we won’t have a full harvest this year, but we have no definite figures and there’s no suggestion the situation is a disaster,” she told The Guardian.
Agreste said the figures remained estimates and that final results would not be known until regions submitted official harvest declarations later this year. The service highlighted “significant regional disparities”, with Languedoc-Roussillon expected to increase production by 5 per cent from its weak 2025 harvest, although output would remain below its five-year average.
France’s wine sector is facing pressure beyond the weather, with domestic consumption at its lowest level in more than 60 years and US tariffs weighing on exports. France is the world’s second-largest wine producer behind Italy and the largest exporter by value.
The government announced more than €1 billion in emergency aid for farmers on Friday following the summer’s extreme weather. France’s Environment Minister Monique Barbut estimated the wider economic damage from the heatwaves at between €10 billion and €15 billion.
Dining and Cooking