After a disappointing previous season, Greek olive oil production is expected to rebound significantly, though producers warn that low prices could undermine the benefits of a larger crop.
Greek olive oil production is expected to rebound in the 2026/27 crop year after last season’s disappointing harvest, with some industry estimates putting the national yield at around 300,000 tons.
If the forecast materializes, Greece would record its largest harvest since 2022/23, when the country produced more than 330,000 metric tons of olive oil.
The optimistic outlook follows a season of low yields in which pest outbreaks caused significant damage to olive fruit in several regions, forcing some producers to end their harvest earlier than usual.
In the southern Peloponnese, olive trees appear healthy and heavily laden with fruit.
“We expect a bumper harvest in our area,” said mill owner Nikolaos Souretis from the coastal town of Kyparissia in western Messenia.
Elsewhere in the region, harvesting has already begun in pockets around the small town of Chora in central Messenia.
Local farmers cultivate the endemic Mavroelia variety, whose olives generally ripen earlier than most other Greek cultivars. The harvest of Koroneiki, the region’s predominant variety, is expected to begin in late October.
Early estimates suggest Messenia’s overall olive oil production could exceed 60,000 tons this crop year.
“We expect a robust harvest in our area provided that it unfolds with no serious setbacks,” Giorgos Kokkinos, head of the local Nileas association of olive oil producers, told Olive Oil Times.
“Increased rainfall and humidity in the next couple of months, for example, would mean that olive pests like gloeosporium would find fertile ground to multiply,” he added.
Beyond production volumes, however, a primary concern for Greek producers is that olive oil prices at origin remain significantly below €5 per liter.
Kokkinos said stocks carried over from last year are currently selling for around €3.40 per liter. He added that producer prices for the new harvest also look weak and will likely hover around €4 per liter for extra virgin olive oil.
He noted that prices at origin in Greece will be influenced to some extent by production in Spain, by far the world’s largest olive oil producer and a benchmark for global wholesale prices.
“An abundant Spanish production would put pressure on the Greek olive oil sector by lowering demand from abroad for fresh oils, also impacting prices,” he said.
In neighboring Laconia, producers are also anticipating a significantly larger yield this year. Last season, the region produced only about half of its overall production capacity of around 30,000 tons.
However, low prices at origin are also weighing on producers there, as expectations of increased supply raise concerns about further downward pressure on prices.
“If prices remain below five euros per liter, especially here where our Athinolia olives require more attention than other varieties, I think that half of the olive groves in the area will soon be abandoned,” said Panagiotis Batzakis, head of the Agioi Apostoloi association in the eastern part of the region.
Local producers also said there is currently little demand from traders and large bottlers, leaving storage tanks filled with olive oil carried over from last year.
On the Aegean island of Lesbos, producers also expect a larger crop this year, although production is now likely to fall short of initial projections.
“Chances are that we will get only half of the initially expected yield on the island,” mill owner Babis Papadellis told Greek state broadcaster ERT.
Papadellis said the island’s olive trees suffered heat stress from hotter-than-usual weather, causing them to lose a significant portion of their foliage. Although recent rainfall stimulated new growth, he said the damage reduced the trees’ capacity to produce a robust harvest this season.
Prices at origin on Lesbos are not expected to differ significantly from those elsewhere in the country and will likely remain close to €4 per liter for low-acidity extra virgin olive oil.
High yields are also forecast for Crete this crop year, one of the centers of the Greek olive oil sector along with the Peloponnese.
According to preliminary estimates, the island’s olive trees could produce up to twice last year’s meager yield of around 40,000 metric tons of olive oil.
Kostis Kekerides of the Zakros agricultural cooperative near Lasithi said olive oil production in the area could exceed 1,000 tons this year, significantly higher than the average annual yield of about 300 tons recorded in recent years.
“The olive harvest in our area will begin in early October and will likely last until February,” he told Olive Oil Times. “We had problems with drought in the last three crop years, but things look much better this year due to the substantial rainfall in our area.”
Kekerides said part of the cooperative’s olive oil is marketed under the Sitia PDO label, primarily for export. However, traders buy most of its annual production in bulk.
“Ideally, we would prefer to sell all of our olive oil as branded oil, but this would first require securing the market for it,” he said.
Other Cretan producers echoed concerns expressed by their counterparts in mainland Greece about low prices at origin and increasingly narrow profit margins.
“Harvest expenses, fertilizer and irrigation costs, and the cost of energy have all skyrocketed,” they said. “If olive oil prices remain at levels that do not cover our expenses, we cannot be viable.”
However, optimism about the 2026/27 harvest is not universal across Greece.
In Stylida, central Greece, local producers have joined together to protest low prices at origin and expectations of another poor harvest in the region.
The producers blamed local authorities for what they described as inadequate measures to contain the olive fruit fly, which they said has proliferated in the area and threatens the crop. They also called for a guaranteed minimum olive oil price sufficient to cover production expenses and provide growers with a viable income.
“For yet another year, the olive harvest is going to begin with low [producer] prices that do not cover production costs,” two local olive oil associations said in a joint announcement.
“[Producers] see that their income is decreasing, and they are unable to make a living or continue farming,” the associations added.
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